Odds say Buccaneers will win Over 11.5 games in 2021-22

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April 12th, 2021

NFL regular-season win totals are available at TwinSpires Sports, and the defending Super Bowl champions have a high total. However, the odds are in favor of the Over, and there are several good reasons as to why.

Tom Brady wins no matter what

No matter what the circumstance, Tom Brady is a winner. After 12 consecutive seasons without making the playoffs, Brady led the Tampa Bay Buccaneers not only to the postseason, but also to a Super Bowl victory. 2002 was the only season in his career that he started at least two games and missed the playoffs.

In 2020, the Bucs went 11-5 in the regular season after winning their final four games. The additions of Leonard Fournette and Antonio Brown made a massive difference for the offense, and the defense really came together behind Shaq Barrett and Devin White.

Extra game in 2021

At first glance, this number of 11.5 wins seems quite high. In 2020, the Bucs only won 11 games even though they went on to become Super Bowl champions. However, it is worth noting that the NFL passed a rule this offseason to change each team’s total number of regular season games from 16 to 17 games.

If the Bucs had this extra game in 2020, the chances are they would have won that 12th game to go Over this total given how hot they were down the stretch.

Departures and arrivals

Every team in the NFL has to go through a roster turnover year after year. It typically hits the defending Super Bowl champions especially hard.

However, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers seem to be the exception to that rule. They have already resigned Chris Godwin, Lavonte David, Tom Brady, Shaq Barrett, Rob Gronkowski, Leonard Fournette, and Ndamukong Suh to new contracts.

Currently, Antonio Brown is the only key contributor from the 2020 season that has not re-signed. However, Brown has not signed with anyone else either, and the possibility is still open for him to return to the Bucs for another run.

The Bucs have not made any major new additions yet, but that is because they chose to spend their cap money on re-signing their current players instead of going after new ones. Only the Chicago Bears and New Orleans Saints have less cap space than the Bucs.

They also have all of their original seven draft pick slots plus one extra seventh round pick in the upcoming 2021 NFL Draft. So, the 2021 Tampa Bay roster will basically be the same as the 2020 Super Bowl roster with some new rookies mixed in.

Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers repeat as Super Bowl Champions?

The NFC South is depleted

Ultimately, you are looking at the same team that just won 11 of 16 regular season games and the Super Bowl in the 2020 season. The NFC South has only gotten worse as the New Orleans Saints lost Drew Brees to retirement, the Carolina Panthers are now looking at Sam Darnold as their starting quarterback, and the Atlanta Falcons lost a big chunk of their secondary.

The rerun of the Super Bowl season combined with a possibly easier schedule and one extra regular season game just screams at you to take the Over for the season win total. It is very rare for a team to repeat as Super Bowl champions, but they do typically have good seasons. 22 of the past 31 Super Bowl champions followed up the next season with double-digit wins.

NFL Pick: Over 11.5 wins (-125)