Over/Under on Zach Wilson touchdown passes set at 21.5

Profile Picture: Andrew Champagne

May 8th, 2021

Zach Wilson’s rapid ascent up the NFL Draft board ended when he was selected with the second overall pick by the quarterback-desperate New York Jets.

All indications are he’ll start as a rookie, so it’s time to take a look at his Over/Under lines for the 2021 campaign.

AFC East rivals won’t help Wilson’s cause

His passing touchdown number is set at 21.5, with each side holding a “vig” of -112. On the surface, this may not seem like a large number. However, when Los Angeles Chargers signal caller Justin Herbert threw 31 touchdown passes a season ago, he obliterated the previous record of 27, which was set by Cleveland Browns quarterback Baker Mayfield in 2018.

Make no mistake, the Jets still do not figure to be a contending team in the AFC East. The Buffalo Bills will be incredibly tough, the Miami Dolphins will be a year older, and New England Patriots head coach Bill Belichick must be respected. It’s a tough division for any quarterback, let alone a rookie.

The 17th game will be a difference-maker

One key point to remember is that this coming season will boast 17-game schedules, which give players another opportunity to hit statistical targets. This, it would appear, is a big reason why Wilson’s Over/Under number has risen from its opening line of 20.5 touchdowns.

In this case, I think that money is smart. Wilson will struggle, as rookies are prone to do. With that said, the Jets’ defense figures to struggle as well. This will lead to plenty of favorable game scripts for the former BYU star.

As long as Wilson doesn’t get himself benched by making mistakes – or hurt by the play of his offensive line – he’ll have opportunities to lead Gang Green down the field with his arm.

Now’s the time to jump on the Over

I don’t think Wilson will be a star in year one. Quite honestly, I thought he was a reach as the second overall pick. However, he’s in a situation where he could put up decent numbers as a rookie, even if the team around him isn’t any great shakes.

I wouldn’t be surprised if the passing touchdown number continues to rise, so if you want to play, now is probably the time to do it.

The play: Over 21.5 passing touchdowns