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Packers vs. Cardinals: The best Kyler Murray player prop bets for TNF

Profile Picture: Jeremy Jones

October 28th, 2021

Kyler Murray has been incredible this season, and finds himself as the favorite to win NFL MVP honors. The 24-year-old QB will try to stay undefeated and continue his remarkable season tonight when the Arizona Cardinals host the Green Bay Packers.

Fri, October 29 2021, 12:20 AM

ARI Cardinals

Moneyline

-315

Spread

-6.5

Total

O 50

GB Packers

Moneyline

+240

Spread

+6.5

Total

U 50

We've examined the matchup closely and have the three best player prop bets for Murray below.

Over/Under 26.5 Rushing Yards

This season has been different for Murray compared to his first two in the league. After averaging 34.0 and 51.2 rushing yards per game in each of his first two years in the NFL, he is only averaging 18.0 yards per game this season.

However, the attempts per game are still there as he is averaging 6.1 rush attempts per game. That is more than he averaged his rookie year, and just two less than last year. Defenses have focused on taking away his running ability, but are quickly realizing he is even more deadly with his arm.

The Packers' run defense has not been good, and that includes against quarterbacks. They have allowed 33.9 rushing yards per game to quarterbacks this season. That includes two games against non-running quarterbacks, Jimmy Garoppolo and Ben Roethlisberger, who combined for a total of five yards rushing. Last week, Taylor Heinicke broke out for 95 yards rushing. I expect to see a little more of the old Kyler Murray running game tonight.   

Pick: Over 26.5 Rushing Yards (-120)

Over/Under 2.5 passing touchdowns

It is uncommon for a quarterback passing touchdown total to be anything other than 1.5. However, it is understandable given the season that Murray is having thus far. He has thrown for three or more touchdowns in four of the seven games this year, and each of the past two games.

The Packers have allowed 14 passing touchdowns through seven games so far, but five of those came in Week 1 against the New Orleans Saints. The defense has really stepped up since that game. Thursday night games have been going under the projected total at a strong rate (5-2), and allowing three passing touchdowns just seems unlikely.

Pick: Under 2.5 Passing Touchdowns (-215)


Over/Under 35.5 pass attempts

Murray has averaged 33.9, 34.9, and 31.9 pass attempts per game in each of his first three seasons in the NFL. Since throwing for 36 pass attempts in Week 2 against Minnesota, Murray has progressively thrown fewer passes in each game this season. Last week, he only had 28 pass attempts.

I already like this to be a bigger rushing game for Murray than his previous games this season. And he has only surpassed this total in one game this year. The Packers only allow 34.1 pass attempts per game. This game just does not seem like the type of game that will call for a ton of attempt from Murray.

Pick: Under 35.5 Pass Attempts (-121)

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