Panthers vs. Texans: The best Sam Darnold player prop bets for TNF
Prior to this season, Sam Darnold had never played an NFL game on a team with a winning record. After defeating the New Orleans Saints last Sunday, he now has the undefeated Carolina Panthers atop the NFC South.
Darnold will try to extend Carolina's surprising two-game winning streak on Thursday night when the Panthers take on the Houston Texans in primetime.
Fri, September 24 2021, 12:20 AM
We've examined the matchup closely and have the three best prop bets for Darnold below.
Over/Under 263.5 Passing Yards
This is an interesting number given how successful Darnold has been in the first two games of the season. He is averaging 292.0 passing yards through those two games. The Texans allowed 319 passing yards to Trevor Lawrence in Week 1.
However, there are some other contributing factors to making this number lower. Even though Darnold has surpassed 264 passing yards twice this year, he only went over this number eight times in his first 38 career games. Also, the Texans only allowed 199 passing yards last week to Baker Mayfield.
The way the game plays out is also a factor. If the Panthers dominate on the defensive end against first time starter Davis Mills, then they likely will not pass as much. I also can see a heavy Christian McCaffrey game plan being employed. Give me the Under for lack of volume and need.
Over/Under 33.5 Pass Attempts
This is another number where if you go strictly off the first two games, it screams to play the Over. Darnold had 35 attempts in Week 1 and 38 attempts in Week 2. He also went Over this number in 14 of his 38 previous career games.
The Texans allowed 51 attempts to Lawrence in Week 1, but only 21 attempts to Mayfield in Week 2. I believe this game will play more like the game against the Browns than the game against the Jaguars. Expect to see more CMC and even Chuba Hubbard to take advantage of the Texans' defense the same way the Browns did with Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt.
The lack of volume was my reason for picking the Under in passing yards, so obviously I am on the Under here in pass attempts as well.
Over/Under 1.5 Touchdown Passes
This prop is not necessarily dependent on volume like the first two props. Case in point, Darnold only has three touchdown passes in the first two games despite the high number of pass attempts and yards.
The same can also happen in reverse though, as Darnold could have low passing numbers with multiple passing touchdowns. Darnold only had 198 passing yards on 22 attempts in his first of three career 3+ touchdown games.
My score prediction for this game is a 27-10 Panthers victory. That is three total touchdowns scored by the Panthers. I absolutely believe there will be at least one rushing touchdown by McCaffrey. This leaves two remaining touchdowns up for grabs. Since both need to be passing touchdowns for this prop to hit at minus odds, I will lean towards the Under at plus odds for the better value.