Panthers vs. Texans: TNF odds market update

Profile Picture: Ashley Anderson

September 23rd, 2021

Rookie Davis Mills will get his first NFL start under the bright spotlight of Thursday Night Football, as he squares up with the undefeated Carolina Panthers inside NRG Stadium at 8:20 p.m. ET.

Fri, September 24 2021, 12:20 AM

HOU Texans






O 43

CAR Panthers






U 43

Mills replaced an injured Tyrod Taylor in the second half of a hard-fought 31-21 loss to the Cleveland Browns in Week 2.

The Stanford product threw a costly interception on his second series of the game and finished with 102 yards and a touchdown on 8-of-18 passing.

Following Mills' professional debut, bettors are fading Houston ahead of this Week 3 matchup.

Let's further explore how the public is wagering on the moneyline, spread, totals, and more at TwinSpires Sports ahead of Thursday Night Football.

Panthers vs. Texans moneyline betting percentages

Betting publicCarolina Panthers moneylineHouston Texans moneyline
Percentage of tickets
Percentage of handle

Carolina and Houston have met just five times since the former became an NFL expansion team in 1995. The Panthers own a 3-2 series lead, and have won the last three matchups.

Most recently, Carolina's backup quarterback Kyle Allen defeated Deshaun Watson and Houston, 16-10, in 2019.

The latest meeting in this series will pit former New York Jets quarterback Sam Darnold against Mills.

Darnold has enjoyed rapid success in his first season in Carolina. Through two games, he is completing 68.5% of his passes, has thrown for 584 yards, and has accounted for four total touchdowns.

The Panthers defense also ranks No. 1 in the league in total defense (190 yards per game), passing and rushing yards allowed, scoring defense (10.5 points per contest), and sacks (10).

Thus, bettors are feeling extremely confident in the road team to get the job done against an inexperienced quarterback and a less than stellar Houston defense. 

Panthers vs. Texans point spread betting percentages

Betting publicPanthers point spread (-8.5)Texans point spread (+8.5)
Percentage of tickets
Percentage of handle

The line initially opened at Carolina -7 but has moved to -8.5, after Taylor was ruled out for Houston with a hamstring injury.

The Panthers are 7-0 against the spread in their last seven road slates, but 0-6 ATS in their last six Thursday games.

Houston is 4-1 ATS in its last five games overall, and the underdog is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings between the Panthers and Texans.

Nonetheless, 66% of all tickets and 68% of the betting handle have backed Carolina to cover.

Panthers vs. Texans totals betting percentages

Betting publicOver 43Under 43
Percentage of tickets
Percentage of handle

Bettors are more evenly split on the Over/Under for Thursday's contest

Nearly 60% of the handle and 54% of tickets placed are on the Under to hit at 43 points.

The line opened at 43.5.

The Over is 2-0 in the first two Thursday Night Football games of the 2021 season, but the Under is 3-1-1 in the last five games between Carolina and Houston.

The Texans rank 10th in scoring offense, but with Mills getting his first start against the league's best defense, points may be hard to come by. 

The Panthers have averaged 22.5 points through their first two games, against the Jets and Saints, who both rank in the top 10 in scoring defense. 

Houston surrendered an average of 26 points against Jacksonville and Cleveland in Weeks 1 and 2.

Most popular bet: Christian McCaffrey to score a least 2 TDs

In addition to Darnold's career resurgence in Carolina, the Panthers offense has regained its spark with the return of running back Christian McCaffrey.

The fifth-year star has already tallied 170 rushing yards and 154 receiving yards through two games, but has only reached the end zone once.

Even so, bettors appear confident McCaffrey will break free for at least two touchdowns (+250 odds) on Thursday night.

Houston let Cleveland rush for 156 yards and three touchdowns last week but held Jacksonville's running backs to 76 yards and no scores.

The Texans also rank 22nd in opponent yards per rush attempt (4.6) and opponent rushing touchdown percentage (42.86%).

With McCaffrey just as much a threat in the passing game, he could finally get his first two-touchdown outing of the season.

Before he suffered a high ankle sprain at the end of a Week 2 matchup last season, he recorded a pair of touchdowns in each of his first two games.