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Patriots vs. Bills: The best player prop bets for Wild Card weekend

Profile Picture: Robert Criscola

January 15th, 2022

Saturday night’s Wild Card weekend matchup should be a good one, as the New England Patriots battle the Buffalo Bills for the third time this season.

We previewed this “rubber match” from a full-game perspective, but now we’ll take a look at the multitude of player props that are available to bettors in this one. Our three favorites are below.

New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills, 8:15 p.m. ET, CBS

Sun, January 16 2022, 1:15 AM

BUF Bills

Moneyline

-220

Spread

-4.5

Total

O 44

NE Patriots

Moneyline

+175

Spread

+4.5

Total

U 44

Damien Harris touchdown scorer

Damien Harris should be a vital part of the Patriots’ gameplan against the Bills. And with the way he’s been scoring touchdowns lately, it should be no shock if he plows into the end zone once more on Saturday night.

Harris has eight touchdowns in his last five games, four of which came over the two previous showdowns with Buffalo. He rushed for over 100 yards in each of those matchups and averaged 7.64 yards per carry, so it’s not as though he was just in the right place at the right time for each of those scores.

Prop bettors should also note that the Bills allowed 19 rushing touchdowns in the regular season, the fifth most in football.

NFL pick: Harris anytime touchdown (+123)


Mac Jones Over/Under 204.5 passing yards

Mac Jones has been assigned a very low passing yards line, but for good reason.

The last time the Patriots ventured to bitter-cold Buffalo, Jones was allowed to throw only three times. While that probably won’t happen again, it’s worth noting that the Bills limited Jones to only 145 passing yards at Gillette Stadium in their Week 16 rematch.

Highmark Stadium isn’t the only hostile venue where Jones struggled this season; the Alabama product threw for only 194.9 yards per game on the road this year, compared to 249.1 yards per game at home.

Buffalo’s stoppers should keep Jones below 200 passing yards in this one.

NFL pick: Under (-115)


Dawson Knox Over/Under 32.5 receiving yards

Though Dawson Knox has the second-most receiving touchdowns on the Bills this year, the hulking tight end isn’t known as a “big play” threat. This does not look like a great matchup for him on paper, so prop bettors should be bearish on his potential performance here.

Knox was held to a grand total of 25 receiving yards in his first two meetings with New England this season. The Patriots were the best in the NFL at preventing tight end receiving yards, allowing only 440 over 17 games.

NFL pick: Under (-118)

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