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Patriots vs. Falcons: The best Matt Ryan player prop bets for TNF

Profile Picture: Jeremy Jones

November 17th, 2021

Everyone remembers the infamous 28-3 Super Bowl collapse by Matt Ryan and the Atlanta Falcons in 2017. Even worse for Ryan, he has never defeated the New England Patriots in four career attempts.

Will he be able to pull off the big upset on Thursday Night Football at home?

Fri, November 19 2021, 1:20 AM

ATL Falcons

Moneyline

+220

Spread

+6.5

Total

O 47.5

NE Patriots

Moneyline

-278

Spread

-6.5

Total

U 47.5

We've examined the matchup closely and have the three best player prop bets for Ryan below.

Over/Under 1.5 passing touchdowns

It has been a little bit of a boom-or-bust season for Ryan this year. He has six games of two or more passing touchdowns, but also two games with zero passing touchdowns, including last week against the Dallas Cowboys.

This also applies to his four career games against the Patriots. Ryan has two games of two passing touchdowns, one game with one passing touchdown, and one game with zero passing touchdowns.

The Patriots defense ranks second in the NFL in points allowed per game and fourth in the league in passing touchdowns allowed. New England has only surrendered two or more touchdowns through the air in four out of 10 games and has allowed one total passing touchdown in the last two games combined.

This matchup is set up to be a blowout in the Patriots' favor, and there will likely be some opportunity for Ryan to get some late touchdowns against a softer defense. However, there is also the likelihood that Ryan gets pulled in a blowout, like last week, so I must play the Under here.

Pick: Under 1.5 Passing Touchdowns (-155)


Over/Under 253.5 Passing Yards

This number is pretty much right on Ryan’s season average of 252.7 passing yards. He has five games Over this number and four games Under this number.

Ryan has averaged 284 yards per game against the Patriots in his career, despite never winning and struggling to find the end zone.

The Patriots defense ranks eighth in the NFL in passing yards allowed, at 220.1 yards per game. It has been four weeks since New England let a quarterback go Over this number, but Dak Prescott did manage to throw for 445 passing yards.

The Falcons will need to air it out to have any chance, with running back Cordarrelle Patterson likely sidelined.

I like Ryan to find the yardage through the air, even if he fails to find the end zone and finish drives.

Pick: Over 253.5 Rushing Yards (-115)


Player to have Most Passing Yards

Both Ryan and Mac Jones have the same Over/Under on passing yards. However, Jones is only averaging 233.3 passing yards per game this year. He has three straight games of 217 passing yards or fewer.

I already expect Ryan to go Over his number of 253.5, so now it is a question of will Jones go Over his number, as well. If so, will his total passing yards be more than Ryan's?

The Falcons defense gives up 246.2 passing yards per game, but also 122.1 rushing yards per contest.

I see the Patriots focusing more on the run game on offense and dominating on that front. I would lean toward the Under on Jones’ passing yardage prop, so I must play Ryan to have more passing yards in the head-to-head matchup.

Pick: Matt Ryan (-113)

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