Patriots vs. Falcons: The best player prop bets for TNF

Profile Picture: Ashley Anderson

November 17th, 2021

New England Patriots rookie Mac Jones will attempt to extend his team's four-game win streak when he faces veteran Matt Ryan and the Atlanta Falcons inside Mercedes Benz Stadium on Thursday Night Football.

Fri, November 19 2021, 1:20 AM

ATL Falcons






O 47.5

NE Patriots






U 47.5

Following a 2-4 start, New England is now one of the hottest teams in the league and just celebrated a massive 45-7 win over the Cleveland Browns to secure a fourth straight victory.

Jones completed 19-of-23 passes for 198 yards and three scores, while fellow rookie Rhamondre Stevenson added 100 yards rushing and two touchdowns against a dilapidated Cleveland roster.

The Patriots defense was also spectacular, as it held its opponent to 217 yards of total offense.

The Falcons played about as well as Cleveland in Week 10 and fell 43-3 to the Dallas Cowboys.

Ryan went 9-of-21 passing for 117 yards and was intercepted twice, and the offense converted just one of 11 third-down attempts.

A return to home should give Atlanta the chance to regain some of the momentum it built in a 27-25 win over New Orleans the week prior.

Let's further analyze the Falcons' Thursday Night Football matchup with the Patriots, as we look at the three best player props to bet.

Matt Ryan: Over/Under 253.5 passing yards

While the Patriots offense has begun to find its rhythm, another key reason New England is on a hot streak is the play of its punishing defense.

The Patriots rank eighth in passing yards allowed (220.1), and have held their last four opponents well under 254 yards through the air.

Ryan has topped 254 yards five times this season, all against teams that rank in the bottom 11 against the pass.

He'll have a much more difficult time against this New England stop unit, which is tied for fourth in total takeaways (17).

In Ryan's most recent matchup against the Patriots in 2017, he threw for 233 yards in a 23-7 defeat, his fourth loss in four career matchups with New England.

Expect a similar showing against Bill Belichick, who is 6-0 all-time against Atlanta as head coach of the Patriots.

Pick: Under 253.5 passing yards (-113)

Mac Jones: Over/Under 1.5 touchdown passes

The Patriots offense should continue to shine in a matchup against the league's second worst scoring defense (29.2 points per game).

Atlanta ranks 28th in opponent red-zone scoring percentage (71.43%) and 25th in red-zone scoring attempts (3.9), so racking up points should be a breeze for New England.

Jones, in particular, will have a field day, as the Falcons defense gives up 2.1 passing touchdowns per game, the third most in the NFL.

Through his last five games, Jones has recorded eight touchdown passes, and on Thursday night, he will add another two to his résumé.

Pick: Over 1.5 touchdown passes (-125)

Hunter Henry: anytime touchdown scorer

With a multiple-touchdown outing by Jones in the forecast, look for tight end Hunter Henry to bring down a catch or two in the end zone.

The former Los Angeles Charger got off to a slow start to the season, after he suffered a shoulder injury in early August, but he has been a scoring machine since Week 4.

Over the past seven games, he has posted a touchdown reception at least once in each contest — except against his old team in Week 8.

Henry is currently tied for fifth in touchdown catches among all receivers, and ranks first among tight ends in that category.

Just last week, he enjoyed his first multiple-touchdown performance, in which he scored twice and generated 37 yards on four catches.

Look for Jones to target Henry again in the red zone, where Atlanta will be unable to stop the 6'5", 250-pounder.

Pick: Hunter Henry to score a touchdown (+245)