Patriots vs. Falcons: TNF odds market update

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November 18th, 2021

The New England Patriots and Atlanta Falcons will clash in a Super Bowl LI remix on Thursday Night Football in Week 11.

Fri, November 19 2021, 1:20 AM

ATL Falcons






O 47.5

NE Patriots






U 47.5

While Tom Brady is no longer quarterback of the Patriots — who famously charged back from a 28-3 deficit in the third quarter of Super Bowl LI — 36-year-old veteran Matt Ryan is still leader of the Falcons offense and will confront head coach Bill Belichick for the fifth time in his career.

Belichick is 6-0 against Atlanta as head coach of the Patriots, and currently has his team riding a four-game win streak, behind the play of rookie signal caller Mac Jones.

Jones is the second choice to win NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year, entering Week 11, and ranks fourth among starting quarterbacks in completion percentage (69%). 

Last week, he threw for a season-high three touchdowns in a surprise 45-7 blowout of the Cleveland Browns in Foxborough.

The Falcons endured the same type of day as the Browns in Week 10, as they got trounced 43-3 by the Dallas Cowboys.

A return to home might help Atlanta get back in the win column, but this red-hot Patriots squad won't make life easy for the home team.

With all that in mind, let's find out how the public is betting the moneyline, point spread, totals, and more at TwinSpires Sports ahead of Week 11's Thursday Night Football matchup.

Patriots vs. Falcons moneyline betting percentages

Betting publicNew England Patriots moneylineAtlanta Falcons moneyline
Percentage of tickets
Percentage of handle

With the way Belichick has his team playing at the moment, bettors feel confident the road team will get the win.

The Patriots sit half a game behind the Buffalo Bills in the AFC East standings, with a 6-4 record, and currently own the sixth seed in their conference.

The Falcons are 4-5 in Arthur Smith's first season as head coach and 3-2 in their last five games, including a thrilling 27-25 road win against New Orleans in Week 9.

While Atlanta has shown flashes of brilliance in its past few games, Ryan's record against Belichick makes it difficult to back him and the home squad.

Patriots vs. Falcons point spread betting percentages

Betting publicPatriots point spread (-7)Falcons point spread (+7)
Percentage of tickets
Percentage of handle

The public is more divided on which team will cover the seven-point spread.

The line sat at 6.5 earlier in the week, but once it moved a half point to 7, a decent amount of handle poured in to back the Falcons.

Atlanta is 7-3 against the spread in its last 10 games following an ATS loss, while New England is 4-0 ATS in its last four games overall.

The Patriots are also 4-0 ATS in their last four meetings in Atlanta.

Patriots vs. Falcons totals betting percentages

Betting publicOver 47.5Under 47.5
Percentage of tickets
Percentage of handle

While the Patriots average the sixth most points per game in the league (27.5), the majority of tickets and handle favor the Under to hit on Thursday night.

The Falcons average just 19.8 points per contest and will face a Patriots defense that allows the second fewest points per game (17.7) in the NFL.

Atlanta gives up 29.2 points per outing (second most in the league), but with its issues defending the run, New England will likely focus on the ground game and milk the clock, if the Patriots can build an early lead. 

The Under is 6-2 in Atlanta's last eight games as a home underdog and 2-2 in New England's four road games this season.

Most popular prop bet: Mac Jones to throw 1.5 touchdown passes

Prop bettors are bullish on one wager, in particular, which is Jones to pass for two or more touchdowns.

Following his three-touchdown performance against Cleveland, he will match up against an Atlanta defense that ranks 28th in opponent red-zone scoring percentage (71.43%), and gives up the third most passing touchdowns per game (2.1) in the NFL.

Through Jones' last five games, he has racked up eight touchdown passes, and he should have little issue reaching the end zone on Thursday night.