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Patriots vs. Jets: The best prop bets for Week 2

Profile Picture: Dan Halverson

September 17th, 2021

Two rookie quarterbacks face off in an AFC East grudge match this weekend when Mac Jones and the New England Patriots take on Zach Wilson and the New York Jets.

Let’s take a closer look at this intriguing matchup and pick out the three best prop bets available.

Sun, September 19 2021, 5:00 PM

NY Jets

Moneyline

+195

Spread

+5.5

Total

O 43

NE Patriots

Moneyline

-250

Spread

-5.5

Total

U 43

Patriots by 7-12 Points

If you believe the Patriots will cover the spread, which the majority of the betting public does, then the winning margin will be at least 7 points in favor of New England.

The Patriots have a top 10 offensive line this season, while the Jets’ defensive line ranks in the bottom third. The Patriots averaged 5.6 yards per play last week (16th best) while the Jets were third-worst in the league at 4.2, so it seems reasonable the Patriots will be more successful as the obvious favorites here.

With a total of just 43 and a rookie quarterback, it also seems unlikely the Patriots will blow out a division opponent on the road, so if you like the Patriots, consider getting +380 on a narrow cover rather than the -110 you’re paying for them to win by any number above six.

Pick: Patriots to win by 7-12 (+380)


Over/Under 21.5 Total First Half Points

Second halves tend to be a bit higher scoring in the NFL, and there is no doubt that Patriots head coach Bill Belichick is capable of making halftime adjustments that typically give his team the edge.

As referenced above, the game total here is 43 points, so to go Over the first half line of 21.5 we would have to break from the odds and see at least 22 points scored in the first half.

The Patriots scored 10 points in the first half last week, and the Jets scored zero. It’s hard to see them more than doubling their combined output, especially in light of Jets’ starting offensive lineman Mekhi Becton’s recent knee injury.

Pick: Under 21.5 First Half Points


First Quarter Ends in a Tie 

If we’re keeping with the assumption that these offenses might struggle in Week 2 as much as they did in Week 1, is it too far-fetched to see this first quarter ending at 0-0, 3-3, or even 7-7? With two rookie quarterbacks facing off against two defensive-minded coaches, it's very likely that field position and defense will be the top two storylines on Sunday.

The Patriots are -106 to win the quarter, but if the Patriots defer the opening kick or the Jets choose to take it, any value on that side of this wager is probably gone immediately.

Let’s take really good odds on a close game through the first quarter.

Pick: First Quarter Ends in a Tie (+350)

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