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Rams vs. 49ers: The best player prop bets for MNF

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November 14th, 2021

All eyes are on the NFC West on Monday Night Football as the 7-2 Rams travel to Levi’s Stadium to take on the San Francisco 49ers.

The Rams saw their four-game winning streak come to an end last week, as the Tennessee Titans proved they didn’t need Derrick Henry after all and won 28-16. This week is all about change in L.A. as Odell Beckham Jr. arrived but unfortunately, 24 hours later, Robert Woods was put on IR.

The 49ers are in all sorts of trouble, having lost five of their last six games. In Week 9, the Arizona Cardinals came to Levi’s Stadium without Kyler Murray or DeAndre Hopkins, yet still left with a 31-17 win.

The odds suggest the San Fran slump might continue on primetime, with the Rams 3.5 favorites for the game.

Tue, November 16 2021, 1:15 AM

SF 49ers

Moneyline

+145

Spread

+3.5

Total

O 49

LA Rams

Moneyline

-182

Spread

-3.5

Total

U 49

Elijah Mitchell: Over/Under 61.5 Rushing Yards

Knowing whether Elijah Mitchell is going to have a good day or not is like trying to predict why my wife is mad at me. They’re almost impossible puzzles. Of course, the clues are there, but you’re never quite certain…

Mitchell has had some great games and some disasters this season. In the six games he's played, he's gone for 100+ rushing yards in three of them, and 43 yards or fewer in the other three. He’s either red-hot or frozen out.

Last week Mitchell managed just eight carries for 36 yards against the Cardinals off the back of going 18 carries for 107 yards against the Colts, and 18 carries for 137 yards against the Bears. Arizona forced the 49ers to abandon the run game by taking a 14-point lead in the first quarter, and this Rams offense has the power to do the same on Monday night.

And while the Rams offense can do the damage, even if Mitchell gets the ball, he may not be able to find much joy. The Rams have restricted the Giants, Texans, and Titans to less than 70 yards of total offense on the ground in the last four weeks.

The total number of players this season who have run for more than 60 yards against the Rams isn’t very long. Chase Edmonds and David Montgomery are the only two names on that list, and the Rams give up the 10th-fewest yards per game to running backs this year. Bank on this being a tough night for Mitchell.

Pick: Under 61.5 Rushing Yards (-112)


Matthew Stafford: Over/Under 290.5 Passing Yards

Only Derek Carr and Tom Brady average more passing yards per game than Stafford (307.9) heading into Week 10, and it’s hard to see too much changing by the time we reach MNF. Working with Sean McVay and a legit offensive line has inspired Stafford to new heights, and although he lost Woods to injury this week, the addition of OBJ is just another weapon at his disposal.

The 49ers have some solid stats against QBs this year – giving up just 218.9 yards a game – but that’s because teams have been so happy to go to the ground against them, running the football 48% of the time. That is unlikely to be Stafford’s play here, as he’s averaging over 35 throws a game.

Stafford has thrown for more than 290 yards in six of his nine games this season, and even in what was considered a disappointing day by his lofty standards against the Titans, he still threw for 294 yards.

The Over/Under for this game is 49, and San Francisco can keep it close, so that may mean plenty of opportunity for Stafford to keep throwing. The last time he was in Levi’s Stadium was in 2019, and he threw for 347 yards and three touchdowns as QB for the Lions. With far more weapons at his disposal in L.A. and Cooper Kupp continuing this unbelievable run, back Stafford to have another big day in primetime.

Pick: Over 290.5 Passing Yards (-113)


Brandon Aiyuk: Over/Under 51.1 Receiving Yards

Aiyuk had a rough start to the season. Whether it was because he was in the doghouse, or simply wasn’t doing enough on the training field, he saw just 11 targets through the first four weeks. Things have started to improve, and last week he had the best game of the year, as he caught six of eight targets for 89 yards.

That was more like the Aiyuk we knew last season, when as a rookie he went for 70 yards or more seven times in 12 games. This year he’s gone for 45 yards or less in seven of the eight games.

The Rams are an average defense against receivers, which should open up opportunity for Aiyuk, particularly as the 49ers throw to keep up with Stafford and company, but he has the added element of fighting for scraps that fall from Deebo Samuel and George Kittle.

Kittle and Samuel gobble up an average of 17 targets per game combined – likely leaving Aiyuk with between four and six on Monday night. That kind of target share doesn’t bode well, as Aiyuk has failed to break 50 yards in 12 of his 13 NFL games in which he had fewer than eight targets.

Pick: Under 51.5 Receiving Yards (-114)

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