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Rams vs. Bengals: The best Joe Burrow player prop bets for Super Bowl LVI

Profile Picture: Josh Powell

February 4th, 2022

Joe Burrow’s story is the stuff of fairy tales. He was drafted by the Cincinnati Bengals, who were the worst team in the NFL and were coming off a 2-14 season. In his rookie year he tore his ACL, and Cincinnati won just four games. 12 months later, he’s led them to the Super Bowl against the Los Angeles Rams. Get this man a Netflix series!

Here are the best Joe Burrow player prop bets as we look forward to Super Bowl LVI.

Sun, February 13 2022, 11:30 PM

CIN Bengals

Moneyline

+163

Spread

+4.5

Total

O 48.5

LA Rams

Moneyline

-200

Spread

-4.5

Total

U 48.5

Longest Pass Over/Under 39.5 Yards

The Rams' defense has only allowed three pass completions for more than 40 yards in the last seven games. LA ranked 22nd against the pass during the regular season, but part of that can be attributed to the fact that teams threw so much against them, rather than opponents picking up huge plays.

Having said that, Burrow is a different kind of QB, especially in the form he’s currently in. Joey Franchise has thrown a completion of more than 40 yards in five of his last six games, and has a wealth of deep threat options with Tyler Boyd, Tee Higgins, and Ja’Marr Chase all more than capable of huge plays.

Joe Burrow's Longest Completions in His Last Six Games

GameReceiverYards
AFC Championship
Tee Higgins
44
Divisional Round
Ja'Marr Chase
57
Wild Card Round
CJ Uzomah
29
Week 17
Ja'Marr Chase
72
Week 16
Tyler Boyd
68
Week 15
Tyler Boyd
56

In the last three Super Bowls there has only been one pass of more than 40 yards – a 44-yard throw from Patrick Mahomes to Tyreek Hill in 2020. Every other completion in the last three Super Bowls has been 33 yards or less.

That’s a trend that needs to be bucked, and Burrow has all the weapons to be the man to do it.

Pick: Longest Pass Over 39.5 Yards (-112)


Over/Under 276.5 Passing Yards

While I’m confident in Burrow pulling off a huge play at some point against the Rams, I’m far from convinced he’s going to be able to top 277 yards. While there’s no doubt he has this in his locker – he put up 525 yards on the Ravens and 446 yards on the Chiefs at the end of the regular season – the Super Bowl is a different game entirely.

Ball security is key here, and the safer plays are the shorter ones. Burrow turned the ball over once in the NFC Championship game with the Chiefs, but other than that was incredibly safe, averaging just 6.6 yards per attempt which is the second-lowest average of his season. It’s a far cry from his average of 8.9 yards per attempt which led the league in the regular season.

In the most recent Super Bowls, this drop in yards per attempt is nothing new, as QBs look to keep the opposing offense off the field. Since 2019, Super Bowl QBs have averaged just 6.5 yards per attempt, and Mahomes is the only man to clear this passing line in that time (286 yards in 2020).

QB's passing performance in the last three Super Bowls

Super BowlPlayerTotal Passing YardsYards per Attempt
Super Bowl LV
Patrick Mahomes
270
5.5
Super Bowl LV
Tom Brady
201
6.9
Super Bowl LIV
Jimmy Garapollo
219
7.1
Super Bowl LIV
Patrick Mahomes
286
6.8
Super Bowl LIII
Tom Brady
262
7.5
Super Bowl LIII
Jared Goff
229
6.0
Average
245
6.5

Joey Franchise failed to clear this line in 53% of his games this season and didn’t top 250 in the playoffs against the Chiefs or the Raiders. The Rams' defensive line is going to be coming at Burrow hard and fast – they recorded more sacks than any other team in the regular season – so there aren’t many occasions when Burrow has a chance to take his time. There’s a couple of big plays in him, but the value is on the Under.

Pick: Under 276.5 Passing Yards (-112)


Player Completion Percentage Over/Under 69.5%

A difficult one to call initially given that Burrow’s average during the regular season this year was 70.4%, but delving a little deeper into recent Super Bowl trends, it looks wise to bet the Under.

The "Who Dey Nation" will no doubt be up in arms reading this as Burrow had four straight games of over 70.5% completions that only came to an end in the Championship game with the Chiefs, but he fell under this line in 47% of his games this season, and now faces the most high-pressure environment of them all.

Going back over the last seven Super Bowls, nine of the 14 (64%) quarterbacks who suited up performed worse in terms of completions versus their season average. Of the five times a player did perform better, three of them were Tom Brady, and we all know he's superhuman. Remove Brady completely, and that number changes to seven out of nine – or 78% - who underperformed.

Quarterback Passing Completion (%) in the Super Bowl

PlayerRegular Season Completion %Super Bowl Completion %Performance Difference
Patrick Mahomes (LV)
66%
53%
-13%
Tom Brady (LV)
66%
72%
+6%
Jimmy Garopollo (LIV)
69%
65%
-4%
Patrick Mahomes (LIV)
66%
62%
-4%
Tom Brady (LIII)
66%
60%
-6%
Jared Goff (LII)
65%
50%
-15%
Nick Foles (LII)
56%
65%
+9%
Tom Brady (LII)
66%
58%
-8%
Tom Brady (LI)
67%
69%
+2%
Matt Ryan (LI)
70%
74%
+4%
Cam Newton (50)
60%
44%
-16%
Peyton Manning (50)
63%
57%
-6%
Tom Brady (XLIX)
64%
74%
+10%
Russell Wilson (XLIX)
63%
57%
-6%

The average drop off is close to 3.5%, and only three of the last 14 Super Bowl QBs have gone over 69.5% in completions. Again, two of those were TB12.

Burrow is going to have to keep throwing all night if this game plays out like we expect, and given recent trends and the pure volume he’s going to have to put up, the Under looks like a smart play.

Player Completion Percentage Under 69.5% (-112)

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