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Rams vs. Bengals: The best Joe Mixon rushing prop bets for Super Bowl LVI

Profile Picture: Josh Powell

February 7th, 2022

We're counting down the days until Super Bowl LVI, and while most of the talk around the Cincinnati Bengals has been focused on the incredible play of Joe Burrow and Ja’Marr Chase, we would be remiss not to shed a bit of light on star running back Joe Mixon.

The Pro Bowler posted career-high numbers for rushing yards and rushing touchdowns during the regular season, and now has his eyes set on SoFi Stadium and a clash with the Los Angeles Rams.

We've examined the odds and have come up with the three best Joe Mixon rushing prop bets for Super Bowl LVI.

Sun, February 13 2022, 11:30 PM

CIN Bengals

Moneyline

+160

Spread

+4.5

Total

O 48.5

LA Rams

Moneyline

-195

Spread

-4.5

Total

U 48.5

Over/Under 61.5 Rushing Yards

Mixon’s rushing yards prop opened at 61.5, and that looks too high. While his average over the last eight games is close enough to this number (58.9 yards), he’s only topped 61 in two of those eight games.

Mixon may have accumulated the third-most yards on the ground of any running back during the regular season, but he was also just one of three players to get more than 260 carries – he had 292 in total!

His efficiency certainly didn't match his workload, and there are issues up front for the Bengals. Mixon averaged 4.1 yards per attempt on the season, which was just the 27th best mark among all running backs. That dropped even more towards the business end of the year, and is down to 3.5 yards per attempt over his last eight games.

Not only is Mixon struggling to put up numbers, but he now faces a Rams run defense that has only allowed two running backs to surpass 52 yards over the last nine games.

Leading Running Backs vs. LA Rams

GamePlayerYardsYards per Attempt
NFC Championship
Deebo Samuel
26
3.7
Divisional Round
Leonard Fournette
51
3.9
Wild Card Round
Chase Edmonds
28
3.5
Week 18
Elijah Mitchell
85
4.0
Week 17
Devonta Freeman
76
5.4
Week 16
Alexander Mattison
41
3.2
Week 15
Deejay Dallas
41
5.1
Week 14
James Conner
31
2.4
Week 13
James Robinson
24
3.0

While that group of opponents may not be the strongest list of running backs, the Rams also held Jonathan Taylor to 51 yards on 15 carries earlier this season (3.4 yards per attempt), so their defensive line is legit.

Aaron Donald led the disruption in the NFC Championship game as the Rams completely took away the 49ers' ground game, and Mixon may suffer the same fate in the Super Bowl.

Pick: Under 61.5 Rushing Yards (-110)


Over/Under 16.5 Rushing Attempts

Alongside Najee Harris and Jonathan Taylor, Mixon is one of just three running backs who played in at least 16 regular season games and averaged more than 18 carries per game.

Mixon has cleared the 16.5 line in eight of his last 10 games and shouldered 21 carries against the Chiefs in the AFC Championship game. The entire run game for the Bengals goes through Mixon – there is no change of pace option, no running back by committee, and Burrow rarely takes off. In the postseason, Ja’Marr Chase has had a few runs, but you can count on one hand the number of attempts from Chris Evans or Samaje Perine.

So, the question really becomes, will the Bengals run the ball 20 times? During the regular season they ranked 19th for number of run plays per game (25.6), while teams ran the ball against the Rams on average 26.1 times per game.

The Bengals have run the ball just 39% of the time during the postseason, but even at that, the Rams gave up 65.8 plays per game during the regular season (fifth highest in the NFL), and that would equate to 25 rushing plays for Cincinnati.

Even accounting for a drop off in number of total plays for the Bengals, we should see Mixon clear this line – even if he isn’t that productive on the night.

Pick: Over 16.5 Rushing Attempts (-125)


Longest Rush Over/Under 13.5 Yards

The inconsistent run-blocking from the Bengals goes some way to explaining why Mixon has been so inefficient this season, and why we’ve put forward the argument that he could shoulder plenty of work and still not hit the rushing yards line. However, when they do get it right, it opens plenty of gaps for this super talented runner.

Since the Bengals came off the bye week, Mixon has been able to put up a run of 14 yards or more six times in 10 games, including a 23-yard dash against the Chiefs last week.

Joe Mixon's Longest Rushes

WeekOpponentLongest Run (Yards)
AFC Championship
Chiefs
23
Divisional Round
Titans
16
Wild Card Round
Raiders
10
Week 17
Chiefs
13
Week 16
Ravens
19
Week 15
Broncos
12
Week 14
49ers
17
Week 13
Chargers
10
Week 12
Steelers
32
Week 11
Raiders
20

The issue is that the Rams have allowed a running back to go over 13.5 yards on one rushing play just three times in their last 10 games. Ravens RB Devonta Freeman tore off a 32-yard run against the Rams in Week 17, but that is the anomaly. No other player in the last 10 games has gone over 18 yards.

Longest running back rush against the LA Rams

WeekRunning BackLongest Run (Yards)
NFC Championship
Elijah Mitchell
9
Divisional Round
Leonard Fournette
11
Wild Card Round
James Conner
11
Week 18
Deebo Samuel
16
Week 17
Devonta Freeman
32
Week 16
Alexander Mattison
18
Week 15
Rashaad Penny
10
Week 14
James Conner
13
Week 13
James Robinson
13
Week 12
AJ Dillon
8

There’s no doubting Mixon’s ability to put up a huge chunk play, but the Rams have been ruthlessly shutting down their opponents' run game in recent weeks. It’s a tough one given the number of opportunities Mixon will get, but lean towards the Under on what should be a tough matchup for the Bengals star.

Pick: Longest Rush Under 13.5 Yards (-112)

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