Rams vs. Bengals: The best receiving player prop bets for Super Bowl LVI
SoFi Stadium is set, Snoop Dogg and Eminem are ready, and the world is waiting as we await the biggest single sporting event of the year: Super Bowl LVI. The Los Angeles Rams will take on the Cincinnati Bengals in a title game few could have predicted at the start of the season, but one that has all the ingredients of a high-scoring thriller.
Sun, February 13 2022, 11:30 PM
Two of the league’s most explosive offenses go head-to-head as Matthew Stafford takes on Joey Franchise, and that opens the door for some huge receiving props. Here are our three best bets for Super Bowl LVI.
Tee Higgins: Over/Under 5.5 Receptions
While rookie Ja’Marr Chase has rightly received plenty of the headlines this season for his record-breaking campaign, bettors can take advantage of this slightly dampening the glow of Tee Higgins. Importantly here, it’s not impacted Higgins’ quality on the field – he’s still an elite receiver in a high-powered offense – but it does mean he’s flying slightly under the radar in the eyes of the media and some sportsbooks.
Case in point is the receptions line which is Over/Under 5.5 for Higgins and Chase. The big difference being Chase is -134 to go Over, while Higgins is +108.
In my mind, that’s a whole lot of value on Higgins here. In the last 10 games when both players have been on the field, Chase has only marginally out-targeted (78-76) and out-caught (55-53) Higgins with both men seeing more than 22% target share.
There have been 10 games this season where Higgins has seen seven or more targets, and he’s cleared 5.5 receptions in eight of them – with five catches in the other two. Joe Burrow is going to have to throw the ball to keep up with the Rams' offense, and with Chase getting a lot of attention from the LA secondary that should open more targets for Higgins. It would be no surprise to see both men record Over 5.5 receptions, but the value is on Higgins.
Cooper Kupp: Over/Under 104.5 Receiving Yards
Super Cooper completed the regular season triple crown as he led the league in receptions, receiving yards, and receiving touchdowns, and Kupp shows no sign of slowing down. His 2,333 yards in the combined season and postseason is the highest tally from any receiver in NFL history, and he’s fresh off the back of torching the 49ers for 11 catches, 142 yards, and two trips to the end zone.
Kupp has gone for at least 92 receiving yards in 18 of his 20 games this season. He’s beaten this line in 65% of his games this year, with a record-breaking 13 games of 100+ receiving yards.
He is the definition of a receiver who is matchup proof. It doesn’t matter who he faces or how they try to stop him. He’s had double-digit targets in 80% of games this year and caught at least seven passes in 85% of them. Stafford keeps looking for Kupp, and Kupp keeps getting open.
Kupp had a 31.8% target share during the regular season and averaged a whopping 114.5 yards per match. That’s only got bigger in the playoffs, with his target share creeping up to 33.7% and his yards per game touching 130.
The biggest stage is set for the game’s greatest talents – and right now there isn’t a more talented receiver than Kupp.
Joe Mixon: Over/Under 26.5 Receiving Yards
Mixon struggled with efficiency on the ground towards the end of the season, but there’s a fantastic opportunity for him to do some damage in the passing game. The Rams defense is ranked ninth in terms of rushing yards allowed to running backs per game (78.5), but 16th in terms of receiving yards allowed to running backs per game (37.1). They give up 6.1 yards per target to backs, and allowed Elijah Mitchell and Leonard Fournette to go for 50 yards or more through the air in this postseason.
Mixon has had 15 targets for 106 yards in the playoffs and is the pass-catching back in Cincinnati. During the regular season he had a 61%-39% split on targets from Burrow vs. Samaje Perine, but that’s jumped to 71%-29% in the postseason.
Mixon has had at least three targets in five straight games now, and cleared 26 yards in every one of them. With the Rams' defense set to come flying at Burrow, we can expect Joey Franchise to be looking to dump it off quickly to Mixon, and that can give him an even bigger uptick in opportunity.