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Rams vs. Bengals: The best rushing prop bets for Super Bowl LVI

Profile Picture: Dan Halverson

Dan Halverson

February 4th, 2022

When Super Bowl LVI kicks off on Sunday, Feb. 13, all eyes will be on Joe Burrow and Matthew Stafford. However, there are plenty of other moving parts that will be key to deciding the winner. With the release of hundreds of prop bets, every niche of the game has a wager to be made.

With that in mind, let’s focus on the three best rushing prop bets to make for Super Bowl Sunday.

Sun, February 13 2022, 11:30 PM

CIN Bengals

Moneyline

+163

Spread

+4.5

Total

O 48.5

LA Rams

Moneyline

-200

Spread

-4.5

Total

U 48.5

Joe Burrow Over/Under 10.5 Yards

Last week Burrow easily hit his Over with five rushes for 25 yards against a Chiefs defense that didn’t show good containment and lacked the pass-rushing that this Los Angeles Rams team possesses.

Now the line has been shifted up a couple yards and there is probably an assumption that he will take off for at least one big gain as his prop for longest run is set at 8.5 yards.

This looks to be an overreaction to last week against a different defense, and I expect Burrow to stay Under this number against the elite pass-rushing speed and talent of the Rams. The Rams' pass rush win rate is first in the league, and it is unlikely they give Burrow much free space to run for that much yardage at once.

Burrow ran for 118 yards in the regular season, a 6.9 yards per game average. Those yards came against all caliber of teams and defenses, and this is sure to be one of his toughest tests of the year. You’ll have to hold your breath until the clock hits 0:00 for this one, but the sharp play here is on the Under.

Pick: Under 10.5 Yards (-118)


Total Yards First Rush: Cam Akers Over/Under 2.5

Cam Akers has made a near-miraculous recovery from his Achilles injury earlier this year, coming back to the field sooner than anyone anticipated. He suffered a shoulder injury in their last game, but should see normal playing time in the Super Bowl.

Akers is an explosive runner with fantastic speed and a power streak that makes him hard to bring down. He has averaged 4.2 yards per carry over his career thus far, well above the 2.5 being posted for his first run of the game.

Akers averaged 2.1 yards before contact in the regular season and 1.7 yards before contact through five playoff games. Given his strength, low center of gravity, and ability to fall forward to finish runs, I expect him to easily get at least three yards on his first carry of the game. The Rams' offensive line is strong enough to get Akers the space he needs to charge forward with all the adrenaline a young running back playing in the Super Bowl is sure to have.

Pick: Cam Akers Over 2.5 (-134)


Joe Mixon Over/Under 62.5 Rushing Yards

Despite the criticism that many heaped upon for his first half strategy against the Kansas City Chiefs, Bengals head coach Zac Taylor stuck to his guns and continued to run the ball with Joe Mixon.

Mixon finished the game with 21 carriers for 88 yards, flying over his rushing total for the game.

Against another potent offense in the Rams, look for Taylor to keep a similar game plan and keep the ball on offense as much as he can with a healthy dose of Mixon.

Mixon is the clear top runner for this Bengals offense, and if he gets another 20-plus carries this will make for an easy Over.

Pick: Joe Mixon Over 62.5 Rushing Yards (-113)

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