Rams vs. Packers: The best betting props for the NFL Divisional Round
The Los Angeles Rams sprung quite the surprise last week, not only beating the Seattle Seahawks but doing it with a banged up offense and a quarterback with only one thumb.
That shocking win came courtesy of their unbelievable defense, so what happens when an immovable object comes up against an unstoppable force in the shape of Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay Packers?
The Packers had the highest scoring offense in the NFL during the regular season, with Rodgers playing at an MVP-level. The NFC’s top seed get home advantage here, with the big question being whether the Rams can stop Rodgers, Adams, Jones and Co.
This may not be a high-scoring shootout, but it is going to be an intriguing game that we won’t be able to take our eyes off. Here are the four best prop bets for Rams vs. Packers.
Sat, January 16 2021, 9:35 PM
Aaron Rodgers passing yards
Rodgers has had an electric season as he bids for his third MVP award and a second Super Bowl ring. He threw for just a yard short of 4,300, 48 touchdowns and just five interceptions. No player in the league had a better pass completion percentage than A-Rod (79.7%), and he averaged 8.2 yards per game.
Not bad for a guy who just turned 37.
But this is not going to be one of his easier games. The Rams' defense is legit. L.A. limited opposing QBs to just 6.2 yards per attempt on average this season, and gave up an average of just 191 passing yards per game. Last week, the Rams held Russell Wilson to 174 yards and a completion rate of just 41%.
The line for Rodgers is set at 256.5, which is high considering only one QB has thrown for more than 268 yards against the Rams all season, and that was Josh Allen in Week 3.
Rodgers has the skills to unlock most defenses, but this Rams unit is a different beast.
Cam Akers rushing yards
The rookie out of Florida State had an inconsistent season, with a couple of big explosive games (84 rushing yards against the 49ers, 171 rushing yards against the Patriots) peppered into some poor games.
But Akers showed up in a big way against Seattle, racking up 131 yards off 28 carries at an average of 4.7 yards a carry. The Rams ran a rushing play 63% of the time against the Seahawks – a trend that is likely to continue this week as John Wolford is on the shelf and starter Jared Goff still isn’t fully fit after his thumb surgery.
The Green Bay run defense isn’t as intimidating as it once was, and the Packers allowed 4.55 rushing yards per attempt this year – which ranks 21st in the NFL. They also allowed 100+ yards rushing 11 times this season. Expect the Rams to run the ball and milk the clock with Akers at the helm.
Davante Adams receiving yards
Saturday’s clash sees a mouth-watering battle between Davante Adams and Jalen Ramsey.
Adams became the only player in NFL history this season to post 100 or more receptions and 18 or more touchdowns in a regular season. Despite missing two games, Adams had the second-most receptions of any player in the league this year (115), and went for an average of 98.1 yards per game – the highest in the NFL.
On Saturday he faces possibly the best corner in the game in Jalen Ramsey. Ramsey has allowed just 309 receiving yards in coverage this season, and just a 50% completion rate. Amari Cooper, Stefon Diggs, Terry McLaurin, Allen Robinson, DK Metcalf (three times), Mike Evans, and DeAndre Hopkins (twice) all went up against Ramsey this year. Not one of them had more than 57 receiving yards, and Cooper is the only one to have more than four receptions. On average, those players tallied 2.2 catches and 23.5 receiving yards per game.
Ramsey doesn’t head into the slot much, so the Packers might move Adams there to get him involved more, but even still this line is too high if Ramsey is on your tail.
Robert Woods receptions
With Goff confirmed to be under centre for the Rams that impacts Cooper Kupp and Robert Woods. Woods has a 23% target share for the Rams, which equates to an average of eight targets per game. That looks quite promising, but we go back to Goff’s injury and the likelihood that the Rams will run the ball, run down the clock, and keep the deadly Packers offense off the field as much as possible.
Woods has five or less receptions in four of his last five games, the only exception being a six-catch game against the Jets in Week 15. Even if he is being targeted in close to a quarter of all the Rams' passing plays, the Rams ran twice as many running plays as they did passing plays against Seattle. That could be the same here given that Goff is banged up.
The Rams can keep this game close courtesy of their elite defense, and therefore the game-script adds to the feeling that they’ll be reluctant to throw.