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Rams vs. Seahawks: The best Matthew Stafford player props bets for TNF

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October 6th, 2021

Last season the Rams handed Pete Carroll and Russell Wilson their first ever home playoff loss by knocking the Seahawks out in the Wild Card round. That was in a fan-less Lumen Field, but now we’re back to full capacity, and Seattle has one of the most intimidating venues in the league.

But is that enough to stop Matthew Stafford and the Rams, who will be looking to bounce back after their first defeat of the season? The Arizona Cardinals won their Week 4 clash 37-20, and Thursday night could be another similarly high-scoring affair.

We've examined this week's TNF matchup closely, and have the three best Matthew Stafford player prop bets below.

Fri, October 8 2021, 12:20 AM

SEA Seahawks

Moneyline

+117

Spread

+2.5

Total

O 54.5

LA Rams

Moneyline

-141

Spread

-2.5

Total

U 54.5

Over/Under 299.5 Passing Yards

Stafford is averaging carer-highs in pass completion (68.1%), touchdown percentage (8.1%), and yards per attempt (9.1). It's been a red-hot start to the season for the 13-year vet, so it’s not surprising to see this line up at the 300 yard mark.

Stafford has averaged 305.5 yards per game this season, with only Derek Carr, Tom Brady and Kyler Murray racking up more air miles. He's also compiled as many 300+ yard games in four weeks as he did all of last season with the Detroit Lions.

The Seahawks have defensive issues and have given up 292.5 passing yards per game this year, ranking 28th in the NFL. Seattle held Carson Wentz to just 251 passing yards in Week 1, but since then Ryan Tannehill (347 yards), Kirk Cousins (323 yards), and the combo of Jimmy Garoppolo and Trey Lance (322 yards) have all gone to town.

The Rams may look to lean more on Darrell Henderson and the run game on Thursday to keep Wilson on the sidelines, but given the array of weapons in the LA passing offense and the Seahawks' weaknesses through the air, it makes sense to side with the Over.   

Pick: Over 299.5 Passing Yards (-115)

Over/Under 25.5 Pass Completions

The Rams' use of Stafford has been interesting over the last few weeks as he attempted just 26 passes in Week 1. That number jumped massively to 38 in Week 3 with Darrell Henderson injured, and then hit a season-high 41 in Week 4 as LA chased the Cardinals on the scoreboard.

Stafford’s 68% completion rate almost mirrors the Seahawks' defense, which so far has allowed a completion rate of 67% to opposing QBs. But the key may be Stafford’s yards per attempt, which currently averages out at 9.1, while the Seahawks' pass defensive gives up an average of 9.0 yards per attempt.

With those figures in mind, Stafford would only need to attempt 33 passes to get over 300 yards, and it may only take between 21 and 24 completions. The 49ers completed 23 passes for 322 yards, while Tannehill completed just 27 for 347 yards.

This feels like a game where Stafford will throw slightly less, and the Rams will run slightly more. However, even if his attempted pass total is in the low 30s, Stafford will still be able to top 300 yards while ducking under 26 completions.

Pick: Under 25.5 Pass Completions (-110)


Over/Under 2.5 Touchdown Passes

Seattle gave up three passing touchdowns to the Vikings in Week 3 and another three to the 49ers in Week 4 – it would be no surprise to see Stafford rack up the same number on Thursday night.

Patrick Mahomes is the only other QB to throw more touchdown passes than Stafford, who has racked up 11 through four games. He has thrown at last two TDs in every game this season, with 85% of the Rams’ touchdowns this year coming through the air.

Sean McVay’s squad averages 28.8 points a game this year, and despite the road game on a short week, the Rams are projected to be around that same tally again in Seattle. Given that this game could turn into a huge shootout, it would be no surprise to see both teams in the end zone numerous times, and there’s value in playing Stafford to throw three or more touchdowns.

Pick: Over 2.5 Touchdown Passes (+155)

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