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Rams vs. Seahawks: The best Russell Wilson player prop bets for TNF

Profile Picture: Jeremy Jones

October 6th, 2021

Russell Wilson is leading the entire NFL in both yards per completion and quarterback rating. Through four games this season, he and Teddy Bridgewater are the only two starting quarterbacks who have yet to turn the ball over.

Wilson will try to get Seattle back into contention in the NFC West on Thursday night when the Seahawks take on the Los Angeles Rams in primetime.

Fri, October 8 2021, 12:20 AM

SEA Seahawks

Moneyline

+114

Spread

+2.5

Total

O 54.5

LA Rams

Moneyline

-137

Spread

-2.5

Total

U 54.5

We've examined the matchup closely and have the three best prop bets for Wilson below.

Over/Under 1.5 Touchdown Passes

Before you just look at this number and think the Over is a lock, let’s consider the matchup and Wilson’s history with the Rams. This will be the 19th time Wilson has faced the Rams as a starting quarterback, and he's thrown two touchdowns or more just seven times during those meetings.

Last year, Wilson only had one passing touchdown in both games combined. Despite being ranked 25th in the league in passing defense, Los Angeles ranks fifth in the NFL in passing touchdowns allowed with just five through four games. This includes games against MVP favorites Tom Brady and Kyler Murray.

The matchup and history here lead me to want to take the Under, especially at plus odds. The spread and total odds indicate a 29-26 Rams victory prediction. I personally see more of a 20-13 type game. This means there is only one touchdown opportunity for Wilson through the air.

Pick: Under 1.5 Touchdowns (+133)

Over/Under 20.5 Rushing Yards

Wilson has yet to really let loose on his rushing ability so far this season. He only has 58 rushing yards through four games, which is 14.5 rushing yards per game. By contrast, he's averaged 30.8 yards per game over his decorated career.

In his career against the Rams, Wilson has averaged 31.7 rushing yards per game. He also had 50 rushing yards in the one playoff appearance against the Rams last season. Wilson has rushed for at least 28 yards in five of his past six meetings with Los Angeles.

The Rams allowed Murray to run for 39 yards last week and Carson Wentz to run for 37 yards in Week 2. Even Andy Dalton and Brady, who are far from mobile quarterbacks, rushed for double digit yards against the Rams. Russ can do damage on the run against this defense.

Pick: Over 20.5 Rushing Yards (-118)


Over/Under 24.5 Pass Completions

This number is a bit of a mystery if you look at the history this season and in this matchup. Wilson has yet to hit this number in a game in 2021, with 18, 22, 23, and 16 pass completions in each of his first four games thus far.

He has averaged 19 pass completions per game against the Rams, and has not gone over 24.5 pass completions in a game against them since the 2015 season. Quarterbacks are 2-2 going Over this number against Los Angeles this year, but game script played a huge factor in those two Overs.

If my prediction of this game script is correct, Wilson won't surpass this number in attempts, let alone completions. I love the Under here, and am surprised you can get this one at 50/50 odds.

Pick: Under 24.5 Pass Completions (-114)

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