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Saints vs. Buccaneers: The best player prop bets for SNF

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December 18th, 2021

We have a huge NFC South showdown in Tampa Bay on Sunday night with plenty on the line for both teams. The New Orleans Saints go into the game as one of five teams in the NFC with a 6-7 record and fighting for the final wild card spot, while the 10-3 Tampa Bay Buccaneers are locked in a battle with the Arizona Cardinals and Green Bay Packers for the No. 1 seed in the conference.

The Saints shocked the Bucs in Week 8 when they claimed a 36-27 victory despite going into the game as 4.5-point underdogs. Will things play out differently in Week 15?

Mon, December 20 2021, 1:20 AM

TB Buccaneers

Moneyline

-590

Spread

-11

Total

O 45.5

NO Saints

Moneyline

+410

Spread

+11

Total

U 45.5

We've examined the matchup closely and have the three best player prop bets for SNF below.

Tom Brady Over/Under 299.5 Passing Yards

There’s really only one place to start in this match and that’s with TB12. Nobody is chucking the ball as much as the Bucs this season, with Brady averaging 318 passing yards per game. That leads the league and is also a career-high for Brady. He’s attempting a whopping 42.6 passes per game and completing 29.1 of them – both career high and league-leading numbers.

Now Brady gets to feast on a Saints team that has all kinds of problems in the secondary. They’ve given up an average of 245 yards per game, but more worrying for fans in New Orleans, they concede 6.9 yards per passing attempt (ranked 21st in the NFL). While they’ve done a great job of stuffing the rush – they’ve kept nine of the 13 teams they’ve faced under 90 yards of offense on the ground – they’ve struggled against the pass.

Brady threw for 375 yards against the Saints in Week 8 and has topped 300 yards in four of his last six games. The seven-time Super Bowl champ has averaged 290 yards per game in 14 games in Raymond James Stadium since he became a Buccaneer.

The Buffalo Bills have one of the strongest pass defenses in the league this year, and last week we watched Brady light them up to the tune of 363 passing yards. Imagine what he could do to the Saints.

Pick: Over 299.5 Passing Yards (-114)


Alvin Kamara Over/Under 53.5 Rushing Yards

Kamara’s season can be summed up by two key stats. Firstly, he is averaging 72.2 yards per game on the ground. That’s great, he’s one of just eight NFL players to manage that this season. However, here’s stat two: Of the 30 players in the NFL who have averaged more than 50 yards rushing per game this season, only James Conner and Najee Harris have been less efficient than Alvin Kamara. The Saints running back might be getting a lot of touches – only Dalvin Cook and Derrick Henry average more per game in 2021 – but he’s simply not doing much with them at just 3.8 yards per attempt.

Kamara returned from injury last week to put up 120 yards rushing from 27 attempts on Jets, but New York has the third-worst rushing defense in football. Before he got injured, Kamara had put up efforts of 51 yards, 61 yards, and 50 yards between Weeks 7 and 9.

The Bucs held Kamara to just 61 yards and an average of 3.2 yards per attempt when they met in Week 8, and that’s a credit to Tampa Bay’s serious strength on defense. They’ve given up an average of just 63.8 yards per game rushing to running backs this season, and will be confident than can nullify the ground threat of an inefficient Kamara

Pick: Under 53.5 Rushing Yards (-117)


Chris Godwin Over/Under 71.5 Receiving Yards

In the last two weeks Chris Godwin has been nothing short of world class. He’s been targeted 32 times and hauled in 25 passes for 248 yards. It’s the second time this season he has had back-to-back 100+ yard games, and this year he is averaging a career-high 7.1 targets per contest.

Godwin is just one of seven players this season to have played in 12 or more games and averaged over 80 yards per game. It’s elite tier numbers from the Tampa Bay star.

Godwin’s target share on the season is 21.7%, and that’s jumped to 25% since Antonio Brown went down in Week 6. With TB12 throwing as much as he is, that’s a seriously big slice of pie for Godwin. Based on those numbers, Godwin should see double-digit targets for the third game in a row and that’s a huge positive for the Over backers on this line.

In his five-year career Godwin has played in 14 games in which he has seen at least 10 targets. In those games he’s averaged 99 yards a game and cleared 71 yards in 79% of them.

The Saints are giving up an average of 179.2 yards per game to opposing wide receivers. Only Tennessee, Minnesota, Washington, and Miami are as generous.

Pick: Over 71.5 Receiving Yards (-117)

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