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Scott Shapiro's Week 10 NFL Worksheet: Cowboys offense will get back on track

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November 10th, 2021

Just when we thought we had a grip on the NFL season and who had legitimate chances at winning Super Bowl LVI, Week 9 happened.

In the NFC, two of the conference's best teams through eight weeks, the Rams and Cowboys, lost convincingly at home as big favorites, while in the AFC, the Bills lost on the road to the hapless Jaguars. The term “Any Given Sunday” gets tossed around a lot, but it continues to ring true in 2021.

The expectation is things will get back to “normal” in Week 10, when Aaron Rodgers and Russell Wilson both appear set to return for their matchup in Lambeau Field. The Raiders, meanwhile, host the Chiefs, and the Patriots welcome the Browns in key contests in the AFC.

Team Most Likely to Win by 14+ Points: Indianapolis Colts

Sun, November 14 2021, 6:00 PM

IND Colts

Moneyline

-455

Spread

-10

Total

O 47.5

JAX Jaguars

Moneyline

+340

Spread

+10

Total

U 47.5

The Jaguars upset the Bills 9-6 in Week 9 in large part due to putting constant pressure on Bills QB Josh Allen.

That is unlikely to happen in Week 10, when Urban Meyer’s squad heads north to take on the Colts.

Indianapolis finally has its offensive line back to full strength, after a number of injuries kept key contributors out of the lineup for most of the first half of the season.

Look for Jonathan Taylor and Nyheim Hines to pick up where they left off in their dominant win last Thursday against the Jets.

The Colts get back to .500 with a lopsided victory in Lucas Oil Stadium.

Underdog of 6+ points Most Likely to Spring an Outright Upset: Detroit Lions

Sun, November 14 2021, 6:00 PM

PIT Steelers

Moneyline

-400

Spread

-9.5

Total

O 42.5

DET Lions

Moneyline

+310

Spread

+9.5

Total

U 42.5

I must be crazy to give the winless Lions a shot on the road in Heinz Field, and maybe I am. But this is a tough spot for the Steelers, after they held off the Bears and Justin Fields on Monday night.

Year in and year out, Mike Tomlin’s squad is known for playing down to its competition, and that could be the case again when Dan Campbell’s team comes to town.

Look for Detroit to play hard off its bye week, while Pittsburgh will come out flat off short rest.

The Lions will hang around, and, who knows, maybe get their first victory of the campaign.

RB/WR/TE Most Likely To Score Two Touchdowns: Dalvin Cook

Sun, November 14 2021, 9:05 PM

LA Chargers

Moneyline

-139

Spread

-2.5

Total

O 53

MIN Vikings

Moneyline

+115

Spread

+2.5

Total

U 53

Minnesota head coach Mike Zimmer spoke all week before the Vikings' game in Baltimore about establishing the run.

Minnesota lost in overtime, 34-31, but Dalvin Cook did rush for 110 yards on 17 carries.

The Vikings are almost certain to ride Cook even more so in their Week 10 matchup against the NFL’s worst rushing defense in 2021.

Points are supposed to come early and often in this one, making the Vikings' lead back a great bet to visit the end zone multiple times on Sunday afternoon. 

Quarterback Most Likely to Throw for 400 Yards: Dak Prescott

Sun, November 14 2021, 6:00 PM

DAL Cowboys

Moneyline

-455

Spread

-9

Total

O 54.5

ATL Falcons

Moneyline

+340

Spread

+9

Total

U 54.5

The Cowboys failed to convert on a couple of fourth-down attempts early in their matchup against the Broncos, and the wheels came off from there in their disappointing loss at home as 10-point favorites in Week 9.

It was an ugly performance, but likely an outlier for one of the most efficient offenses in the NFL. Dallas should bounce back in a big way in a favorable matchup against a Falcons defense that ranks toward the bottom of the NFL against the pass.

Look for Dak to find CeeDee Lamb, Amari Cooper, and Dalton Schultz regularly in what could be a shootout in AT&T Stadium.

Defense Most Likely To Pitch a Shutout: Arizona Cardinals

Sun, November 14 2021, 9:05 PM

ARI Cardinals

Moneyline

-530

Spread

-10.5

Total

O 44.5

CAR Panthers

Moneyline

+375

Spread

+10.5

Total

U 44.5

The Cardinals defense lost J.J. Watt to a shoulder injury a couple of weeks ago, but have continued to play at a high level, despite the loss of the Future Hall of Famer.

That should continue this Sunday, when the Panthers come to town. Carolina backup signal caller P.J. Walker will be forced into duty, with Sam Darnold set to miss multiple weeks with a fractured scapula.

Walker has struggled when thrust into duty thus far. Expect that to continue in State Farm Stadium.  

My Week 10 ATS Plays of the Week

  • Raiders +2.5
  • Browns +2
  • Lions +9.5

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