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Scott Shapiro's Week 11 NFL Worksheet: Bucs, Browns Will Bounce Back After Week 10 Duds

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November 17th, 2021

Usually, 10 weeks into the NFL season, a few teams start to cement themselves as the likeliest to lift the Vince Lombardi Trophy. That is not the case, though, in 2021, as there is still so much to decipher.

In the AFC, Tennessee has rattled off six consecutive wins and is 8-2, but the public still prefers Buffalo’s chances to get to Super Bowl LVI. The Bills sit as significant favorites at TwinSpires Sports (+225), with Kansas City a lukewarm second choice (+475) to get back to the “Big Game” for the third straight year.

The NFC is a bit more top heavy. Arizona, Dallas, and Green Bay have just two losses. However, it is Tampa Bay (+300), despite its current two-game losing streak, that remains favored to once again represent the conference in Sofi Stadium in mid-February.

The next two months should be a lot of fun with so much still to figure out.

On to Week 11, where a late afternoon tilt between the Cowboys and Chiefs headlines a slate that also includes an NFC North showdown in the Twin Cities.

Team most likely to win by 14+ points: Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Tue, November 23 2021, 1:15 AM

TB Buccaneers

Moneyline

-560

Spread

-11

Total

O 49.5

NY Giants

Moneyline

+400

Spread

+11

Total

U 49.5

The defending champions appeared to have picked up right where they left off last season, winning six of their first seven contests in 2021.

However, a loss to division rival New Orleans before their bye week and a poor performance in Washington D.C. last Sunday has some concerned. Not me, though.

Look for Tampa’s offense to fix the issues that plagued it in the nation’s capital last Sunday and for the defense to force Daniel Jones into a couple of big mistakes.

The Bucs offense will roll on primetime behind a big game from Tom Brady.

Underdog of 6+ points most likely to spring an outright upset: Jacksonville Jaguars

Sun, November 21 2021, 6:00 PM

JAX Jaguars

Moneyline

+215

Spread

+6.5

Total

O 45.5

SF 49ers

Moneyline

-275

Spread

-6.5

Total

U 45.5

There is a chance that San Francisco turned a corner in its Monday night home win against the Rams.

On the other hand, it will be hard to replicate that emotion when the Niners head east to take on an inferior opponent on short rest.

Jacksonville’s offense has been poor behind rookie quarterback Trevor Lawrence, but the defense, especially the pass rush, has been strong over the past couple of games.

The Jaguars should keep this one close throughout in a likely low-scoring affair in North Florida.

RB/WR/TE most likely to score two touchdowns: Nick Chubb

Sun, November 21 2021, 6:00 PM

CLE Browns

Moneyline

-480

Spread

-9.5

Total

O 45

DET Lions

Moneyline

+350

Spread

+9.5

Total

U 45

Everything went wrong for the Browns in a huge game in Foxborough last Sunday, but they should bounce back in a big way in a get-right spot against the winless Lions.

Nick Chubb was forced to sit out a week ago due to COVID-19, but he should run wild in FirstEnergy Stadium on Sunday.

Cleveland’s elite run-blocking offensive line encounters a Lions defense that played an extra quarter in its overtime tie in Pittsburgh last week and ranks toward the bottom of the NFL against the run.

Expect a couple of visits to the end zone for one of the league’s best pure runners.

Quarterback most likely to throw for 400 yards: Patrick Mahomes

Sun, November 21 2021, 9:25 PM

KC Chiefs

Moneyline

-141

Spread

-2.5

Total

O 56.5

DAL Cowboys

Moneyline

+116

Spread

+2.5

Total

U 56.5

It had been a struggle for the Chiefs offense over the last several weeks, but they woke up in a big way on Sunday night in their 41-14 rout of the Raiders.

That, in large part, was due to elite play from Patrick Mahomes. The 2018 Most Valuable Player completed 35-of-50 passes for 406 yards and five touchdowns. It should be another big week for the Chiefs' aerial attack, with the Cowboys visiting Arrowhead Stadium.

Kansas City has an implied team total of 29.5 points and is all but certain to have to keep the foot on the gas against one of the league’s most efficient offenses.

Back-to-back big games from the NFL’s best signal caller appear highly likely.

Defense most likely to pitch a shutout: Tennessee Titans

Sun, November 21 2021, 6:00 PM

TEN Titans

Moneyline

-435

Spread

-10

Total

O 44.5

HOU Texans

Moneyline

+310

Spread

+10

Total

U 44.5

Admittedly, I was dead wrong about the Titans defense. Before the season began, I thought they lacked a significant pass rush and had a bottom five secondary. After 10 games, I am still not in love with their secondary, but I could not be more impressed with their front four, led by breakout defensive tackle Jeffery Simmons.

Expect Simmons and crew to wreak havoc again this Sunday in Nashville. 

My Week 11 ATS Plays of the Week

  • Jaguars/49ers Under 45.5
  • Browns/Lions Under 45
  • Saints +1.5
  • Bucs/Giants Over 49.5

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