Scott Shapiro's Week 11 Thursday Night Analysis- Packers vs Seahawks
Week 11 starts Thursday night in Seattle with an important NFC battle between two teams that need to get hot to make the playoffs.
The Packers got back to .500 on Sunday with a home win against a subpar Dolphins team led by backup quarterback Brock Osweiler. The victory was a must for Green Bay after it came up short in consecutive road games off the bye week to the Rams and the Patriots, but I still have my doubts whether this team can make a playoff run this year.
Aaron Rodgers continues to be one of the best quarterbacks in the National Football League, but questionable coaching decisions and glaring holes in other key areas have kept the Packers from being an elite team in their conference. It was nice to see head coach Mike McCarthy lean a bit more on running back Aaron Jones in the 31-12 Dolphins victory in Lambeau Field, but if Green Bay falls behind on Thursday night it is likely he will revert back to a one-dimensional attack.
As usual, the Packers have been a tough team to beat at home, but they have been unable to translate that success to the road. Their 0-4 record away from Lambeau makes them tough to endorse as they travel on short rest to the Pacific Northwest on Thursday evening.
Aaron Rodgers continues to be one of the best quarterbacks in the National Football League, but questionable coaching decisions and glaring holes in other key areas have kept the Packers from being an elite team in their conference.
Coming into the season, I did not expect much from the Seahawks. In fact, key losses on defense and a lack of playmakers on offense concerned me enough to endorse playing under their Win Total (+/- 8) in 2018. Seattle got off to a slow start losing their first two games and were fortunate to avoid a terrible road loss in Arizona in Week 4, but head coach Pete Carroll has done a great job of getting the most of his talent since then.
The Seahawks enter their Week 11 contest with a record of 4-5 SU, but their last two losses are forgivable since they came against two of the NFL’s elite in the Chargers and Rams. With their season essentially on the line at home at CenturyLink Field on Thursday night I expect Carroll to have the Seahawks ready to play at their best.
Some statistics over a ten-game sample size can be meaningless, but I think there is some value to be gained when evaluating why the home team has won 8-of-10 Thursday night affairs this season. With a travel day added to the short rest, it is difficult to prepare properly if you are heading on the road. The only two exceptions to the home team dominance thus far on Thursday’s have been in cases where a much superior team won in a less than hostile environment (Week 6 Eagles won in New York 34-13, Week 7 the Broncos won in Arizona 45-10)
With a massive home field advantage and a team that has played better football over the past month, I like the Seahawks to win and cover to keep their season alive on Thursday night.
Pick: Seattle Seahawks (-2.5)- 1 unit
Scott Shapiro’s 2018 NFL Record 28-18-3 (+8 units)