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Scott Shapiro's Week 14 NFL Worksheet: Fournette, Allen set to go off in Tampa

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December 8th, 2021

After Week 14, it is no longer the Buffalo Bills that sit atop the AFC futures market at TwinSpires Sports. Instead, it is the New England Patriots, off their road win in upstate New York, and the Kansas City Chiefs, off of a home victory against Denver, that are listed as the co-favorites (+300) to represent the conference in Super Bowl LVI.

Neither team looks close to unbeatable, but both are playing great defense in what remains a wide-open race to the finish line.

The Cardinals finally got Kyler Murray and DeAndre Hopkins back in Week 13 and made short work of the Bears. They sit at 10-2 and atop the NFC, but it is the defending champion Buccaneers that remain the favorites (+260) to get back to the Super Bowl in Tom Brady’s second year at the helm in Tampa Bay.

Arizona and Green Bay are both given respect in the market, though, at +350.

On to Week 14, where there is a plethora of key divisional contests, as well as a potential shootout between Brady and Josh Allen. Rams at Cardinals concludes the action on Monday night in a game that very well could decide the NFC West.

Team most likely to win by 14+ points: Kansas City Chiefs

Sun, December 12 2021, 6:00 PM

KC Chiefs

Moneyline

-435

Spread

-9.5

Total

O 48

LV Raiders

Moneyline

+325

Spread

+9.5

Total

U 48

The Raiders were unwilling to modify their defensive scheme in their Week 10 Sunday night matchup against Kansas City and paid the price by yielding 41 points to Patrick Mahomes and crew.

If they are wise, they will alter their approach, but there is a good chance Gus Bradley will stick to his Cover-3 scheme. If so, his defense is likely to get shredded again in a must-win contest in Arrowhead Stadium.

With the Chiefs defense playing at a high level and the Las Vegas offense struggling to score points, other than in its Thanksgiving affair in Dallas, this has the potential to be another one-sided contest.

Underdog of 6+ points most likely to spring an outright upset: Houston Texans

Sun, December 12 2021, 6:00 PM

HOU Texans

Moneyline

+245

Spread

+7.5

Total

O 41.5

SEA Seahawks

Moneyline

-315

Spread

-7.5

Total

U 41.5

Seattle kept its season afloat last Sunday, with a 30-23 home win against San Francisco, but avoiding a letdown after a run of two divisional games and a Monday night road contest in the middle will be a major challenge for a team that has underwhelmed all season long.

There is no doubt the Seahawks have a stronger roster than the Texans, and potentially came to life with the big home win in Week 13, but I do not trust them at all. Especially laying a touchdown on the road.

RB/WR/TE most likely to score two touchdowns: Leonard Fournette

Sun, December 12 2021, 9:25 PM

TB Buccaneers

Moneyline

-182

Spread

-3

Total

O 52.5

BUF Bills

Moneyline

+148

Spread

+3

Total

U 52.5

The Bills’ run defense has been exposed of late in matchups where it was quite obvious that running the ball was about to happen.

In Week 11, the Colts posted 41 points on Buffalo, led by Jonathan Taylor, who ran for 185 yards on 32 carries. Then in the biggest game of the Bills' season, in conditions that led to New England throwing the ball just three times, Sean McDermott’s team yielded 222 yards on the ground.

Now on short rest, the Bills head to Florida to take on a Tampa Bay team that has one of the most prolific aerial attacks in the NFL, but also has gotten the most out of Leonard Fournette. Look for Bruce Arians to give the ball to “Lombardi Lenny” often in this inter-conference matchup.

Quarterback most likely to throw for 400 yards: Josh Allen

Sun, December 12 2021, 9:25 PM

TB Buccaneers

Moneyline

-182

Spread

-3

Total

O 52.5

BUF Bills

Moneyline

+148

Spread

+3

Total

U 52.5

Once again, Tampa Bay’s run defense has proven to be elite in 2021. Todd Bowles’ unit is tied for first in the NFL with Baltimore with 84.3 opponent rushing yards per game.

Expecting Buffalo’s anemic run game to have success in Raymond James Stadium on Sunday is wishful thinking, which means a lot of drop-backs for Allen. Look for the seventh overall pick in the 2018 NFL Draft to throw the ball 40-plus times and post big numbers in a game with the highest point total of the week.

Defense most likely to pitch a shutout: New Orleans Saints

Sun, December 12 2021, 6:00 PM

NY Jets

Moneyline

+175

Spread

+5.5

Total

O 43.5

NO Saints

Moneyline

-220

Spread

-5.5

Total

U 43.5

It is do-or-die time for Sean Payton’s squad after the Saints suffered their fifth consecutive loss last Thursday night against the Cowboys. The good news for New Orleans is it meets the Jets in Week 14.

The Saints are unlikely to find the end zone regularly, but their defense should make life miserable for rookie quarterback Zach Wilson in this matchup in MetLife Stadium. 

My Week 14 ATS Plays of the Week

  • Arizona -2.5
  • Lions/Broncos Under 42
  • Packers/Bears Under 43.5
  • Houston +7

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