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Scott Shapiro's Week 5 NFL worksheet: Josh Allen will go to work in KC

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October 6th, 2021

Through four weeks, the Cardinals are the lone undefeated team in the NFL.

Arizona’s defense has overachieved, and Kyler Murray has been unstoppable, with a combination of incredible throws and elite athleticism. I still am dubious about the Cardinals' chances as a Super Bowl contender, but they are fun to watch and merit respect.

But we're on to Week 5, which features a serious NFC West clash Thursday and a rematch of last year’s AFC Championship Game on Sunday night. Let's examine the teams and players to keep an eye on.

Team most likely to win by 14+ points: Minnesota Vikings

Sun, October 10 2021, 5:00 PM

MIN Vikings

Moneyline

-335

Spread

-7.5

Total

O 49

DET Lions

Moneyline

+245

Spread

+7.5

Total

U 49

New England and Tampa Bay are the biggest favorites this week, but I am leery about laying more than a touchdown with either, since they are in letdown spots, after the big game Sunday night in Foxborough.

The Vikings should be ready for their best effort, after a disappointing offensive performance against the Browns.

Minnesota will meet a Detroit team that lacks talent and is banged up in the secondary and the offensive line. Credit the Lions for playing hard for 60 minutes each week, even when they fall way behind, but they are overmatched against Minnesota in a must-win spot.

Underdog of 6+ points most likely to spring an outright upset: New York Giants

Sun, October 10 2021, 8:25 PM

DAL Cowboys

Moneyline

-335

Spread

-7

Total

O 52

NY Giants

Moneyline

+255

Spread

+7

Total

U 52

The Cowboys have looked like one of the best teams in the NFC over the first four games, so expecting them to lose as a touchdown favorite at home may be wishful thinking.

However, they could be in a flat spot.

New York is just 1-3, but quarterback Daniel Jones has played well and the Giants offensive line has taken a massive step forward in 2021, especially last year’s first-round selection, Andrew Thomas.

If Dallas plays its “A” game, the Giants are up against it, but if the Cowboys come out flat, after two blowout victories against the Eagles and Panthers, a better-than-expected New York offense should be able to stay in the game and give Mike McCarthy’s team all it can handle.

RB/WR/TE most likely to score two touchdowns: Davante Adams

Sun, October 10 2021, 5:00 PM

CIN Bengals

Moneyline

+128

Spread

+3

Total

O 50

GB Packers

Moneyline

-157

Spread

-3

Total

U 50

The Bengals defense has given up 24 points or fewer in each of the first four games, but it will face its stiffest challenge of the year this week against the Packers.

Davante Adams caught just six balls for 64 yards in a positive game script against a subpar Steelers defense Sunday, but with a more imposing attack on the opposing sideline, the All-Pro wide receiver is almost certain to be asked to do more.

Look for Aaron Rodgers to get Adams involved early and hit him for at least a few big plays, in a game where the Packers have an implied team total of 26.5 points.

Quarterback most likely to throw for 400 yards: Josh Allen

Mon, October 11 2021, 12:20 AM

KC Chiefs

Moneyline

-148

Spread

-3

Total

O 56.5

BUF Bills

Moneyline

+123

Spread

+3

Total

U 56.5

The Bills offense was not at its best through the first two weeks, then did not need to air it out in two home routs against Washington and Houston. That will not be the case Sunday night, when Buffalo heads to Kansas City seeking revenge.

Look for offensive coordinator Brian Daboll to throw the ball early and often against a Chiefs defense that has yielded at least 29 points in each of its first four 2021 contests.

Win or lose, Josh Allen should get plenty of volume at Arrowhead.

Defense most likely to pitch a shutout: Denver Broncos

Sun, October 10 2021, 5:00 PM

PIT Steelers

Moneyline

-118

Spread

-1

Total

O 40

DEN Broncos

Moneyline

-104

Spread

+1

Total

U 40

The Denver defense has faced a soft schedule, but they have looked like an elite group nonetheless. The Broncos will get another favorable matchup in Week 5, when they head east to take on Ben Roethlisberger and the Steelers.

Father Time may not be undefeated any longer, as Tom Brady is still executing at an elite level at 44, but the same cannot be said about Roethlisberger.

Another long day is in store for the Pittsburgh offense against Von Miller and crew.

My Week 5 plays of the week

  • Rams (-2.5)
  • Texans (+9.5)
  • 49ers (+5.5)

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