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Scott Shapiro's Week 9 Worksheet: Herbert bounces back in Philly

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November 2nd, 2021

We are almost to the midway point of the 2021 NFL season. The Buffalo Bills have not been perfect, but they are the clear favorite in the AFC at TwinSpires Sports (+200), with Lamar Jackson and the Ravens sitting as the current second choice (+450).

The NFC is no doubt the stronger conference up top heading into Week 9. The defending champion Buccaneers are the current chalk (+300), with the Rams (+325), Packers (+450), and Cowboys (+500) sitting in great position to give Tampa Bay a real challenge come playoff time.

Onto Week 9, where there are four teams on bye week and some good ones on the slate, including the Packers and Chiefs in Arrowhead.

Team Most Likely to Win by 14+ Points: Dallas Cowboys

Sun, November 7 2021, 6:00 PM

DAL Cowboys

Moneyline

-455

Spread

-9.5

Total

O 49.5

DEN Broncos

Moneyline

+340

Spread

+9.5

Total

U 49.5

The Broncos may have found a way to grind an ugly victory out at home against the Washington Football Team, but they face a much stiffer challenge in Week 9.

Denver heads into AT&T Stadium to take on a Dallas squad that should get Dak Prescott back, after he missed Week 8 in Minnesota.

Look for one of the best offenses in the NFL to get the ball to the Cowboys' plethora of playmakers and contain the subpar Denver offense that continues to struggle to find the end zone with Teddy Bridgewater at the helm.

Cowboys roll to 7-1.

Underdog of 6+ points Most Likely to Spring an Outright Upset: Houston Texans

Sun, November 7 2021, 6:00 PM

MIA Dolphins

Moneyline

-286

Spread

-6.5

Total

O 46

HOU Texans

Moneyline

+225

Spread

+6.5

Total

U 46

It is never exciting to endorse the team with the worst roster in the league, but to first-year head coach David Culley’s credit, the Texans have played hard, despite a serious lack of talent.

Houston has not won since Week 2, when it handled Jacksonville, but the Texans played New England and Cleveland tough. They also have a chance to get quarterback Tyrod Taylor back in the lineup on Sunday, when Houston takes on a Dolphins team that has had very little go right in 2021.

Look for the Texans to keep this one close — especially if Taylor returns to the lineup — and potentially find a way to earn their second win of the season.

RB/WR/TE Most Likely To Score two Touchdowns: Darrell Henderson

Mon, November 8 2021, 1:20 AM

LA Rams

Moneyline

-375

Spread

-7.5

Total

O 53.5

TEN Titans

Moneyline

+285

Spread

+7.5

Total

U 53.5

The Rams offense has been rolling since their 37-20 defeat to the Cardinals in Week 4. They should continue to do so in a tasty Sunday night matchup against Tennessee.

The Titans somehow held Kansas City to just three points in their Week 7 win in Nashville, but otherwise have struggled to stop the opposition over the first half of the 2021 campaign.

Look for the Rams to find the end zone early and often, with Henderson continuing to lead the way in the backfield for Sean McVay.

Quarterback Most Likely to Throw for 400 Yards: Justin Herbert

Sun, November 7 2021, 9:05 PM

PHI Eagles

Moneyline

+120

Spread

+2.5

Total

O 50.5

LA Chargers

Moneyline

-148

Spread

-2.5

Total

U 50.5

The Chargers looked like serious contenders in the AFC after their Week 5 win against the Browns, but have struggled mightily over their last two games.

The good news is they should get right this Sunday in their interconference tilt against Philadelphia.

The Eagles’ defense has played well against weaker competition, but have struggled big time when facing the league’s elite offenses. Expect Herbert to dissect the Eagles secondary in a game between two teams that like to play at a quick pace.

Defense Most Likely To Pitch a Shutout: New England Patriots

Sun, November 7 2021, 6:00 PM

CAR Panthers

Moneyline

+160

Spread

+4

Total

O 41.5

NE Patriots

Moneyline

-200

Spread

-4

Total

U 41.5

Bill Belichick must be licking his chops after his team earned a massive win in Los Angeles in Week 8.

His defense encounters one of the league’s worst offensive lines and, more than likely, backup quarterback P.J. Walker.

Walker has struggled in his limited action in 2021, completing just 3-of-15 passes. It is likely to be a long day in Charlotte for a Panthers offense that is simply not close to the same without Christian McCaffrey in the lineup.

New England wins with defense.

My Week 9 ATS Plays of the Week

  • Over Chargers/Eagles (50)
  • Patriots (-4)
  • Under Browns/Bengals (46)
  • Cowboys (-9.5)

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