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Scully's NFL Week 4 picks: Broncos will pass first big test

Profile Picture: James Scully

September 30th, 2021

On the Week 4 NFL schedule this week, we'll see the first major test for the undefeated Denver Broncos, who will host the Baltimore Ravens.

I have a strong opinion for that matchup, and my Week 4 selections include a pair of teams that will rebound from setbacks.

Let’s take a look at three games of interest from a betting perspective.

Baltimore Ravens vs. Denver Broncos

Sun, October 3 2021, 8:25 PM

DEN Broncos

Moneyline

-115

Spread

-1

Total

O 44.5

BAL Ravens

Moneyline

-106

Spread

+1

Total

U 44.5

Baltimore won’t have much left for Denver, following a pair of emotional wins.

After the Ravens dramatically edged Kansas City, with a rally from a double-digit, fourth-quarter deficit, the Ravens needed a record 68-yard field goal from Justin Tucker to defeat Detroit.

One of five undefeated teams, Denver exits a dominant performance, as the Broncos held the New York Jets to 204 total yards in a 26-0 win. The Denver defense is once again formidable, and quarterback been the missing element for an offense with quality skill players.

But new quarterback Teddy Bridgewater ranks third by QBR (77.8), and his addition has led to significant progress for the Broncos.

Baltimore won’t be able to match Denver’s intensity. With three home games in front of them, the injury-ravaged Ravens will be glad to get out Denver without any more personnel losses.

NFL pick: Denver -1


Washington Football Team vs. Atlanta Falcons

Sun, October 3 2021, 5:00 PM

ATL Falcons

Moneyline

+102

Spread

+1.5

Total

O 48

WAS Football Team

Moneyline

-124

Spread

-1.5

Total

U 48

After a crushing loss to Buffalo, Washington will rebound against woeful Atlanta. The Football Team can lean on its defense against Atlanta’s underwhelming offense.

Falcons quarterback Matt Ryan’s stats from Week 3 are misleading — 118 of his 243 passing yards came on the final possession of regulation and in overtime. The New York Giants shut him down most of the game.

The 36-year-old has struggled in new coach Arthur Smith’s offense, ranks 29th (34.6) in QBR, and Atlanta’s inability to run effectively magnifies the pressure upon the aging quarterback.

After it was outclassed by Buffalo, Washington will get a breather. Washington’s offense is performing at a higher level than Atlanta, and it has the defense to guarantee a comfortable win.

NFL pick: Washington -1.5


Seattle Seahawks vs. San Francisco 49ers

Sun, October 3 2021, 8:05 PM

SF 49ers

Moneyline

-152

Spread

-3

Total

O 52

SEA Seahawks

Moneyline

+123

Spread

+3

Total

U 52

With no margin for error, following consecutive losses, Seattle will capitalize against a divisional rival that has performed below par.

The Seahawks have covered 15 of their last 20 meetings between these teams, and San Francisco is a surprising 3-8 ATS in its last 11 regular-season home games.

San Francisco hasn't done anything particularly well this season and ranks 19th in total offense. Banged up at running back, the offense also lacks big-play ability, and the defense isn’t getting the push up front it has in recent seasons.

The Niners secondary has become a major weakness, because of injuries, and Seattle quarterback Russell Wilson can exploit its shortcomings. Wilson has thrown seven touchdowns and no interceptions this season. Seattle has its own defensive woes, but the Seahawks always play San Francisco tough.

NFL pick: Seattle +3

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