Scully's Week 5 NFL Free Picks

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October 3rd, 2018

Scully’s Week 5 NFL Free Picks

Our own James Scully continues to roll through with strong takes on the 2018 NFL campaign with a record of 11-6-3 ATS (64.7%) so far. His five favorite matchups are listed below in his package of Week 5 NFL free picks!

*ATS (Against the Spread) / SU (Straight Up) * PK indicates pick *home team in caps

Atlanta Falcons +3 vs PITTSBURGH STEELERS (Sunday 1:00 ET)

Atlanta defense severely limited as injuries playing a key role this season, with starters LB Jones, S Keanu Neal and S Allen on IR and CB Bethel, DE Shelby and DT Jarrett hobbled of late and trying to make it back on field. As a result, they’ve given up 80 points and 941 yards while being outscored at home the last two weeks and things won’t get any better Sunday. Look for Pittsburgh (-3) to bounce back from a dismal home performance in which they were blanked in the 2nd-half after being tied at halftime. QB Ben Roethlisberger loves to exploit weak pass defenses, lighting up the scoreboard on KC and Tampa Bay earlier this season, and Steelers are 5-0 ATS after team’s last five losses and 7-0 ATS at home off a SUATS loss versus an opponent off a SU loss. Atlanta can still score but star RB Devonta Freeman was out last week due to an ankle and Falcons won’t be at full-strength if he returns. Steelers still capable of steamrolling many teams in the league and this game has all the makings of an easy Pittsburgh win, lay the points!

Week 5 NFL Free Picks – Bet Pittsburgh -3.0 over Atlanta!

Baltimore Ravens -3 vs CLEVELAND BROWNS (Sunday 1:00 ET)

Cleveland has improved talent and could be a decent team with good coaching. But Hue Jackson is on his way out the door and this is a sinking ship as the Browns have found a way to lose three winnable games and still haven’t won on a Sunday since 2016 (lone SU win came versus Jets on Thursday night). The defense fell apart last week as Browns blew late lead in OT loss to Oakland, giving up 565 yards of offense, and maligned unit (23rd versus run; 24th versus pass) figures to be down after losing one of their best players, CB Mitchell, to a wrist injury. Baltimore (-3) defense made a statement at Pittsburgh last week, holding potent Steelers’ attack scoreless in 2nd half. And Ravens know how to win as the favorite, easily covering every game versus a team with a losing record so far this season. The defense is ranked 4th overall and looking to be recognized as the best in the NFL and Ravens field one of the most improved offenses this season, with QB Flacco playing at a career-best level and lots of skill players around him in WR Brown, WR Crabtree, WR Snead, RB Collins and rookie Lamar Jackson. Browns 1-8 ATS in last nine games as home dogs versus teams with at least a .600 record and 1-7 ATS in last eight games after giving up 35+ points versus an opponent off a double-digit SU win. Baltimore 5-0 ATS in last five meetings against Cleveland and an impressive 4-0 ATS in last four games in Cleveland. Expecting more of the same Sunday as Baltimore takes care of business!

Week 5 NFL Free Picks – Bet Baltimore -3.0 over Cleveland!

Green Bay Packers -1.5 vs DETROIT LIONS (Sunday 1:00 ET)

Green Bay improved to 2-1-1 SU with win over hapless Bills but the ground game remains marginal, Rodgers is limping around and Packers lack outside threats with WR Cobb sidelined. Packers’ schedule about to get much more difficult after facing three awful offensive teams (Buffalo, Chicago and Washington) and a Minnesota squad that missed three makeable field goals in a tie. Draw a line through the first two weeks of the season for Detroit (+1.5); new coach Matt Patricia is finally starting to mold team in his image and Lions much-improved in the last two weeks, dominating New England at home and taking it to Dallas on the road last week in a narrow loss. QB Stafford playing at high-level (307 yards passing last week) and Golden Tate performing like the best WR in league (eight catches, 132 yards & 2 TDs). And Detroit has been running the ball more effectively with rookie Kerryon Johnson. There’s some talent on this young defensive unit and Lions are 5-0 ATS in last five games versus NFC competition while Green Bay 1-5 ATS in last six games versus NFC. Packers not healthy and questionable in most road settings presently. Detroit should be favored and wins Sunday!

Week 5 NFL Free Picks – Bet Detroit +1.5 over Green Bay!

Arizona Cardinals +4.5 vs SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS (Sunday 4:25 ET)

San Francisco rallied around season-ending loss of QB Garoppolo with inspired performance at Los Angeles Chargers last week, posting their first ATS win but squandering a two-touchdown lead as Chargers rallied to win in 4th-quarter. Look for a letdown off that tough defeat as the realities of having QB Beathard (2-4 ATS last six games and two interceptions last week) at the helm are realized. Niners’ defense allowing 29.5 points per game and is vulnerable against a good RB like David Johnson. Arizona (+4.5) enters 0-4 SU but after two dreadful performances to open the year, Cardinals have gone to rookie QB Rosen and played much better the last two weeks, losing late in very winnable games against Chicago and Seattle (2-0 ATS). Those teams are better than a Garappolo-less Niners and Arizona has fared well against their divisional rival on the road, going 4-1 ATS in last five games at San Francisco. The road team is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings and believe this is a match-up between two teams going a different direction. Arizona has a good chance to earn their first win and love getting the points!

Week 5 NFL Free Picks – Bet Arizona +4.5 over San Francisco!

Dallas Cowboys +3.5 vs HOUSTON TEXANS (Sunday 8:20 ET)

Confidently playing against Dallas, who is 2-0 SU at home but dreadful on the road so far this season. Cowboys have only scored 21 points in a pair of road tilts, with QB Prescott failing to reach 140 yards passing in either game while leading a lethargic attack, and Dallas defense has given up plenty of rushing yards to suspect ground games of Carolina, Seattle and Detroit so far this season. Houston (-3.5) got off to a disappointing start as QB Watson showed rust returning from ACL. But after dropping first three games by a combined 15 points, Texans rebounded with gritty overtime road win at Indianapolis, easily outgaining the Colts as offense produced 347 passing and 119 rushing yards. Dallas needed a 4th-quarter comeback to edge Detroit last week and is 1-3-1 ATS in last five after SU win. Houston has momentum, with their talented defense starting to play better and ranking 10th versus the run, and expect Texans to hold Dallas down as the offense continues to find its groove and wins going away in the 2nd half!

Week 5 NFL Free Picks – Bet Houston -3.5 over Dallas!

James Scully is a professional handicapper who hails from the great state of Ohio. You can follow him on Twitter @JamesScully.