Scully’s Week 6 NFL Free Picks

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October 12th, 2018

James Scully takes on the upcoming weekend of action after going 3-2 ATS in Week 5 to push his season record to 14-8-3 ATS (63.6%) on the year. Check out his Week 6 NFL Free Picks! 

*ATS (Against the Spread) / SU (Straight Up) * PK indicates pick *home team in caps

Chicago Bears -3 vs MIAMI DOLPHINS (Sunday 1:00 ET)

Miami opened the year with three narrow wins over low-scoring teams but the offense has become stagnant and they continue to lose key players up front, with the starting C and RG on IR and LT Tunsil leaving last week’s game with a concussion. QB Tannehill isn’t playing well, tossing 3 interceptions over the past two weeks as the Dolphins’ offense has managed only 17 combined points (one TD via special teams), and Cincy’s defense scored twice on this lethargic attack last week. That’s big trouble against an outstanding Chicago (-3) defense ranked #1 against the run (allowing only 64 yards per game). Khalil Mack is the defensive player of the year so far, making a statement this season after being traded, and Bears will force Tannehill into mistakes with their pressure. New coach Matt Nagy, who taught Mahomes the ropes as KC’s offensive coordinator last year, is poised to follow in the footsteps of Doug Pederson and Sean McVay as the next great offensive head coach and he got Trubinsky on track in their last game with 344 yards passing. We can expect further improvement from the Bears’ offense and love well-coached teams off the bye week. Miami doesn’t do well after an away game, posting a 2-7 ATS mark under head coach Adam Gase, and has been a putrid 1-6-1 ATS following a SU loss. Chicago 5-1 ATS in their last six games and picks up a comfortable cover on Sunday!

Week 6 NFL Free Picks – Bet Chicago -3.0 over Miami!

Los Angeles Chargers -1.0 vs CLEVELAND BROWNS (Sunday 1:00 ET)

Los Angeles Chargers were not done any favors by the schedule-makers and make their second difficult trip to the Eastern time zone for a 1 p.m. game this season. They managed to squeak by an incompetent Buffalo still playing QB Pederson in week 2 but now face an up-and-coming team with legitimate divisional hopes behind quality QB play. Chargers hadn’t stopped anybody until coming against a Raiders squad last week that still appeared to be celebrating their first win of the season the week before, giving up 30 points per in their first four games, and it’s no surprise to see L.A. ranked 20th versus the pass (270 yards per game) considering they have trouble pressuring opposing QBs. CLEVELAND (+1) could be 5-0 if they had a decent kicker (special teams cost them wins against New Orleans and Pittsburgh) and didn’t get screwed by a bad call in a tough loss two weeks ago. But at 2-2-1 overall, they still control their own destiny and can win the AFC North. Browns’ defense showed their chops against Baltimore last week, holding a talented group of WRs in check as they allowed only 3 FGs, and Mayfield starting to find his groove following an outstanding effort in which he threw for 342 yards and led a game-winning drive against one of the league’s best defenses. Cleveland runs the ball effectively as well and their opportunistic defense ranks first in NFL with +8 turnover differential. Cleveland 6-0 ATS in last six meetings (3-0 ATS at home) and playing with more confidence than the Chargers, who are 0-3 ATS against decent teams this season. Love playing against West Coast teams in this time slot and Cleveland has played their best football at home; Browns improve to 5-1 ATS on the season!

Week 6 NFL Free Picks – Bet Cleveland +1.0 over Los Angeles Chargers!

Pittsburgh Steelers +2.5 vs CINCINNATI BENGALS (Sunday 1:00 ET)

Pittsburgh took advantage of a reeling injury-riddled Atlanta defense missing a pair of key starters in secondary but meets a divisional foe with a far superior defensive unit this week. And that’s been kryptonite for an offense that isn’t operating on all cylinders without Le’Veon Bell, with the Steelers being shut out in the 2nd half versus Baltimore and Cleveland this season. Pittsburgh’s secondary stinks, ranking 30th overall while allowing more than 400 passing yards allowed per game, and high-scoring Cincinnati (-2.5) enters game with momentum and is poised to score a lot of points with their weapons. Love teams who find ways to win and cover look-ahead games and Bengals were in a huge letdown spot against Miami last week after dramatic last-second victory at Atlanta. They got it done by dominating the 2nd-half, rallying from a 17-0 deficit to win 27-17, and Pittsburgh has been awful in the 2nd half this year, failing to score in three-of-five games. Cincy in position for retribution after being dominated for years by Pittsburgh and don’t expect this game to be close. Look for difference-maker RB Mixon to make an impact in his second game back from injury and with a vastly improved defense, this isn’t your momma’s Bungles. Cincy 4-1 ATS this year and oddsmakers have this line all wrong because Pittsburgh isn’t a playoff-caliber team and Bengals have the players to exploit their deficiencies. In a game with all the makings of a beat down, Cincinnati will be a strong play this week!

Week 6 NFL Free Picks – Bet Cincinnati -2.5 over Pittsburgh!

Tampa Bay Buccaneers +3.5 vs ATLANTA FALCONS (Sunday 1:00 ET)

Neither team plays any defense but willing to fade Tampa Bay switching back to QB Winston as starter. Winston did what he does best when throwing a pair of interceptions in mop-up duty of their last game and is missing a key weapon in sidelined TE Howard. Any goodwill coach Koetter generated for the Bucs’ fast start this season is starting to dissipate as the losses pile up and similar to Washington last Monday night, can’t trust Bucs’ coaching staff to do a good job of preparation following bye week. Tampa’s awful defense ranks 29th versus pass and is giving up 34.75 points a game – they allowed 483 yards of offense to Chicago last out and have been pounded defensively this season, surrendering less than 30 points only once against a team with a back-up QB. Atlanta (-3.5) will score early and often, recording at least 31 points in three consecutive games before a tough second half at Pittsburgh last week (trailed only 13-10 at halftime). And while Pitt (who leads league in sacks) was able to sack Matt Ryan six times, he’ll have plenty of time to pick apart a weak secondary against Tampa’s suspect pass rush. Falcons off to a bad start due to a slew of defensive injuries but still have plenty of weapons offensively and are well-coached. They’ll get off the mat and snap a three-game losing streak with a convincing double-digit win, lay the points!

Week 6 NFL Free Picks – Bet Atlanta -3.5 over Tampa Bay!

San Francisco 49ers -9.5 vs GREEN BAY PACKERS (Monday 8:15 ET)

San Francisco played well enough to win the last two weeks, giving up a 4th-quarter lead to the Los Angeles Chargers before dominating Arizona statistically but losing due to five turnovers (outgained opponent 547-220 yards). QB Beathard already has four interceptions since replacing Garappolo two weeks ago and Niners lost their top remaining RB Breida (who replaced injured starter McKinnon) last week to an ankle injury. Expect a hangover effect in a tough road setting this week. Green Bay (-9.5) has their offense humming, with Rogers throwing for more 700 yards the last two weeks and the ground game netting 239 yards rushing in those contests, and they’ll be glad to be home after giving away last week’s game to Detroit due to special teams’ errors – they outgained the Lions by a 521-264 margin. Packers’ defense is also coming on, ranking sixth overall and fourth against the pass, and they’ll be flying all over the place and harassing a back-up QB with limited weapons. Green Bay 4-1-1 ATS in their last six games versus San Fran in Lambeau and will be 5-1-1 after a lopsided Monday night win!

Week 6 NFL Free Picks – Bet Green Bay -9.5 over San Francisco!

James Scully is a professional handicapper who hails from the great state of Ohio. You can follow him on Twitter @JamesScully.