Steelers vs. Bills: The best player prop bets for Week 1

Profile Picture: Josh Powell

September 10th, 2021

It will be a real "passing of the torch moment" in Buffalo this weekend as Josh Allen and the Bills face Ben Roethlisberger and the Pittsburgh Steelers. Allen was only eight years old when Big Ben was a Steelers rookie, and now the two players go head-to-head in Week 1.

We've examined the matchup closely and have selected the three best player prop bets for Steelers vs. Bills.

Stefon Diggs Over/Under 89.5 Receiving Yards

Stefon Diggs led the league in catches and receiving yards last season, so even in a tricky match-up going toe-to-toe with Joe Haden of the Steelers, I'm not going to ditch Diggs.

Last year Diggs hauled in 105 catches and 1,268 yards - and that was despite missing three games. His connection with Allen was electric from the start, and could be even better as the two studs roll into a second season together.

Diggs caught 10 catches for 130 yards against the Steelers last year - accounting for 55% of all the Bills' yards through the air. Expect a similar performance on Sunday as he tries to put on a show for the Bills Mafia.

Pick: Over 89.5 Receiving Yards (-114)

Ben Roethlisberger Over/Under 263.5 Passing Yards

Big Ben is going into his 18th season and it's fair to say the veteran isn't as electric in the pocket as he once was. Last year his average yards per attempt was 6.2, and his average depth of target was just 6.9 yards. Behind a mediocre Pittsburgh offensive line, Roethlisberger wasn't taking time to scan the field and risk taking a beating.

He chucked the ball an average of 43 times per game last year, but that volume is going to significantly drop after the Steelers made a huge move in the NFL draft for Najee Harris out of Alabama. The hugely exciting running back is set up to see a ton of work straight off, so Big Ben’s passing volume will decrease. The Steelers threw the ball on 68% of their plays in their game with the Bills last year, but that is unlikely to be the case this weekend.

The Bills held Roethlisberger to just 21 completions for 187 yards last season, and overall ranked 13th in the NFL for their pass defense. They held nine of 16 teams under 250 passing yards during the regular season last year and that, combined with Pittsburgh leaning on the run game, means we can comfortably side with the Under here.

Pick: Under 263.5 Passing Yards (-113)

Najee Harris Over/Under 58.5 Rushing Yards

Najee Harris is a serious prospect for the Steelers, and it’s no surprise they opted for him in the draft. He saw significant work during the preseason, and all the talk coming out of camp suggests his workload won’t slow down against the Bills.

The Bills' defense ranked 17th in the league in rushing yards allowed to the opposition in 2020, and 26th in yards per attempt – and we know Harris is in for a heavy load.

This all points to a good debut for Harris despite the concerns over the Steelers’ offensive line. The Bills gave up 4.6 yards per carry a year ago, and Harris could easily be in line for 16 touches or more, so this line looks beatable.

Pick: Over 58.5 Rushing Yards (-114)