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Steelers vs. Chiefs: NFL Week 16 betting odds, preview, and pick

Profile Picture: Robert Criscola

December 23rd, 2021

A battle that could go a long way in determining the AFC playoff picture will take place at Arrowhead Stadium on Sunday afternoon, as the Pittsburgh Steelers visit the Kansas City Chiefs.

The Steelers have been inconsistent for most of the season, but have won two of their last three in low-scoring contests. The Chiefs, meanwhile, seem to have righted the ship after a rough start, as they’ve won seven in a row.

Let’s dive into this matchup and see where bettors should be placing their faith.

Pittsburgh Steelers (7-6-1) at Kansas City Chiefs (10-4), 4:25 p.m. ET, CBS

Sun, December 26 2021, 9:25 PM

KC Chiefs

Moneyline

-375

Spread

-8

Total

O 44.5

PIT Steelers

Moneyline

+285

Spread

+8

Total

U 44.5

Clear the way for Clyde Edwards-Helaire?

Patrick Mahomes doesn’t appear to be in danger of missing this game, but primary targets Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce are currently in COVID protocols after testing positive for the virus. They’ve yet to be ruled out, but even if they both suit up, this looks like a good chance for Clyde Edwards-Helaire to break out.

The second-year running back from LSU has been handled with kid gloves since coming off injured reserve four games ago, taking just 45 carries for 186 yards. But he does have three touchdowns in that span.

Edwards-Helaire will match up with a Pittsburgh defense that’s second-worst in the NFL in stopping the run, as they’ve allowed 143.9 yards per game on the ground in 2021.

Can Big Ben and company keep up?

The Steelers needed just about everything to go right to beat the Tennessee Titans last week, as they won the turnover battle 4-0 and still escaped with just a six-point victory. They were a made two-point conversion away from losing to the Baltimore Ravens too three weeks ago, and those are their only two wins after an embarrassing tie to the Detroit Lions in Week 10.

Ben Roethlisberger had arguably his worst game of the season under center last week, going 16-for-25 for only 148 yards. Tailback Najee Harris was limited to 18 yards on 12 carries in the victory, the third time in five games he’s been held to under 40 yards rushing.

The Kansas City defense will bend from time to time, but this unit is hard to break entirely. Prior to allowing 28 points to the Los Angeles Chargers last Thursday, the Chiefs surrendered nine or fewer points in four of their last five contests.

Steelers vs. Chiefs injury report

Pittsburgh SteelersKansas City Chiefs
Pat Freiermuth: Questionable (concussion)
Tyreek Hill: Questionable (reserve/COVID list)
Chris Wormley: Questionable (groin)
Travis Kelce: Questionable (reserve/COVID list)
Devin Bush: Out (reserve/COVID list)
Kyle Long: Questionable (reserve/COVID list)
Marcus Allen: Out (reserve/COVID list)
Chris Jones: Questionable (reserve/COVID list)
Harrison Butker: Out (reserve/COVID list)

Steelers and Chiefs betting trends

  • The Steelers are 5-1 ATS in their last six games against teams with winning records
  • The Steelers are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games in December
  • The Chiefs are 5-0 ATS in their last five games overall
  • The Under is 6-2 in the last eight meetings between these two clubs
  • The Under is 37-14-1 in the Steelers’ last 52 road games

The verdict

This is a big number to give, but the Chiefs should prove superior to the Steelers this Sunday.

Score prediction: Chiefs 27, Steelers 14

NFL pick: Chiefs -8


Steelers vs. Chiefs pick powered by The Quant Edge

Our predictive engine is calling for the Chiefs to win and cover the spread, and the game to go Over the projected total.

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