Super Bowl LV staff picks and analysis

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February 3rd, 2021

The eyes of the world will be on Tampa on Sunday, Feb. 7 as the Chiefs clash with the Buccaneers in Super Bowl LV. It’s a matchup few would have anticipated a year ago after the 7-9 Bucs finished with a sub .500-record for the eighth time in nine seasons.

However, that was before Tampa Bay signed Tom Brady. The three-time MVP led the Buccaneers to 11 wins in his first season in Florida, and now finds himself back on football’s biggest stage for the 10th time in his legendary career.

Will Brady win his seventh Super Bowl this weekend, or will Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs become the NFL’s first back-to-back champs since 2004? We posed that question to our TwinSpires staff, and they didn’t hold back.

Check out their picks below, and remember to follow us on game day as we provide complete coverage of Super Bowl LV.

Sun, February 7 2021, 11:30 PM

TB Buccaneers






O 56.5

KC Chiefs






U 56.5

Super Bowl LV Picks

Staff MemberSuper Bowl LV Pick
Ashley Anderson
Buccaneers +3.5
Jeremy Balan
Chiefs -3.5
Robert Criscola
Chiefs -3.5
Jeremy Jones
Buccaneers +3.5
Ryan Murphy
Chiefs -3.5
James Scully
Buccaneers +3.5
Scott Shapiro
Chiefs -3.5
Adam Spradling
Buccaneers +3.5
Cam Tucker
Chiefs -3.5
Thomas Tassone
Chiefs -3.5

Ashley Anderson: As a Brady fan, my heart won’t let me pick against the six-time Super Bowl champion, who will undoubtedly have his team prepped for the NFL’s biggest stage. Yes, the Chiefs already handled the Bucs in Week 12, but I think Tampa’s defense will come in hot on its home turf and give Kansas City a much more difficult test in Super Bowl LV. Read Ashley's tips on how to bet on the Super Bowl.

Jeremy Balan: My pick basically comes down to my expectation of what the line was going to be. I expected the Chiefs to be a five-point favorite. Maybe the spread can be attributed to Brady's presence and his status as a six-time champ, but I haven't found him to be all that impressive in the playoffs this year.

Robert Criscola: Kansas City has covered in four of its last five playoff games, cashing in as favorites in each instance. The Chiefs are also 11-5 ATS in their last 16 games against teams with winning records. Read Robert's full preview.

Jeremy Jones: That half point is massive. I believe this game will come down to the final possession, and even if the Chiefs win it will be by a field goal. Read Jeremy's picks for the best Super Bowl passing props.

Ryan Murphy: I love Tom Brady the way bears love honey, and want the 43-year-old QB to win another Super Bowl with every fiber of my being. However, I learned long ago to bet with my head rather than my heart. TB12 will have his moments, but Sunday will belong to Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs, just as it did in Week 12.

James Scully: The majority of the betting public will be on Kansas City, but I expect a back-and-forth Super Bowl that is decided by less than a field goal. I'm taking Tampa Bay and the points. Read James' full preview.

Scott Shapiro: Kansas City is coming off one of its most complete performances of the year. With Mahomes back to 100%, the Chiefs appear poised to be the first team to win back-to-back championships since Brady and the Patriots in 2004 and 2005. Read Scott's full preview.

Adam Spradling: You have to ask yourself who faced the better competition in the playoffs. The Bucs and Brady squared off against two future Hall of Famers in Drew Brees and Aaron Rogers, and won both games in convincing fashion. Mahomes and the Chiefs, meanwhile, competed against less seasoned QBs in Josh Allen and Baker Mayfield. Brady and the Bucs are peaking at precisely the right time, while the Chiefs are regressing due to health concerns.

Cam Tucker: The Chiefs’ offense is too strong, with too many playmakers. Try to take away Travis Kelce, and you have to defend Tyreek Hill. Take away Hill, you have Kelce to deal with. Tampa Bay will keep this close for a while, but the Chiefs will come through to win by a touchdown. Read Cam's Super Bowl LV prop picks.

Thomas Tassone: They say you don’t get rich betting against the G.O.A.T., but that’s exactly what I’m doing Sunday. Mahomes is the new sheriff in town and he’s coming for that throne whether you like it or not! I’m taking Chiefs -3.5 in a thrilling 34-24 victory.