Super Bowl Player Props - Grading The Best Offensive Player Bets

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D.S. Williamson

January 30th, 2019

In only a few days, the Rams will attempt to win their second Super Bowl and their first in Los Angeles. Most feel that if the Rams are to do that, their top players on both sides of the ball must step it up. That’s excellent news to those looking to attack Super Bowl player props this weekend. This is a game that is going to feature a double dose of offense, with two of the best architects doing putting their best foot forward.

Let's break down both teams' top players as we get ready for Super Sunday!

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 Jeff Goff Total Passing Yards - Under 285.5 (-110)

I’m going under on Goff throwing for 286 yards for a few reasons. First, I really feel Sean McVay intends to keep the ball out of Tom Brady’s hands. He can’t do that if Goff’s slinging it all over Mercedes-Benz Stadium.

Second, McVay’s overall strategy is to save his defense for the fourth quarter. That’s when Brady does his magic. If McVay’s defenders are gassed, there's no way Tom Terrific will take his foot off the pedal (more on his Super Bowl player props in a minute).

Finally, Goff can get into a shootout if that’s the only way the Rams can win, but he’ll be more Troy Aikman than Dan Marino this Sunday. He’ll want to take his time with every play.

Jeff Goff TD Pass - Over 1.5 (-165)

Although Goff won’t get the yards, he should throw at least 3 touchdowns given how the Rams offense is structured. If McVay’s intent on running the football, and the Rams have success, Goff will have play action opportunities. Those opportunities should lead to a few touchdown throws.

Todd Gurley Rush Yards – Over 68.5 (+110)

The Rams didn’t rush Gurley that much against the Saints, which is why a few of you will choose to fade this particular play in Super Bowl player props. However the reason that Gurley didn't ball out against New Orleans might be because the Saints rank second in the NFL in rush yards allowed. The Patriots allow close to 113 yards per. Also, if you’ve got the best overall offensive player in the NFL on your team, you should probably use him in the Super Bowl.

Todd Gurley Receiving Yards – Over 32.5 (+100)

Expect Gurley to get over 20 touches in this game. McVay will have had two weeks to put together a game plan around the top running back in the league. He won’t waste Gurley’s talents. Don’t be surprised if Todd ends up with 6 to 8 catches if not 10 or more. Those catches should translate to yards because although the Patriots are solid on defense, they’re going to have trouble matching up with Gurley in the passing game.

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Tom Brady Passing Yards - Over 282.5 (-160)

He's thrown 505, 466 and 320 in his last three Super Bowl appearances. The Patriots run the ball a lot more than they used to, and will use Burkhead and Sony Michel to pound the rock, but Brady still finds his seams and makes magic happens. What's more, he threw those 505 yards against the Eagles in a losing effort. No matter which way you slice it, the Patriots' pivot is destined to put up big passing yard numbers in a win or a loss.

Rob Gronkowski Receiving Yards - Over 49.5 (-165)

This is easily one of the hardest Super Bowl player props to get a beat on. Gronkowski erupted for 79 pivotal yards in the AFC Championship after being relatively quiet for months. He's crested the 50-yard plateau six total times this including playoffs, and managed 100+ playoffs just twice (in Week 1 and Week Week 14). The truth is that we don't know what he's capable of anymore, but it's obvious that he has something left in the tank. The Patriots have used Gronkowski as a lead blocker in the rushing game on the edges way more this season than anyone is used to seeing, but he's still the most unstoppable offensive weapon this team has.

The truth is that Gronkowski can get close to 49.5 yards pretty quickly because most of his routes are for big, chunk yardage. He averaged 14.5 yards per catch this season, and it's obvious that when the going gets tough, the Patriots like to feed Gronkowski.


James White Rushing Yards - Under 17.5 (-110)

This seems like an insanely low rushing yards total for James White, and it is. However, it's important to remember that White is more often used as a dump-off receiver out of the backfield, which is why his receiving yards total of 44.5 in Super Bowl player props is favored at -165. What this number likely factors is the fact that the Rams suffocated both Dallas and New Orleans, notably limiting Alvin Kamara to just 15 rushing yards. It's a harrowing bet to make, but it's the smart one.

The New England Patriots are 2.5-point favorites in Super Bowl LIII as they prepare to battle the Los Angeles Rams on February 3rd, 2019!