Super Bowl prop bets: History says Buccaneers will win coin toss

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February 4th, 2021

One of the most popular prop bets for the Super Bowl is the outcome of the coin toss.

It’s as even a bet as you can make, as you have a 50-50 shot. However, there are key trends that can help you make a decent amount of money before the game even kicks off.

Let's review the four coin-toss prop bets available, and predict how things will play out during the pregame ceremonies on Sunday night.

Coin toss outcome

In 54 Super Bowls, the coin has landed with tails facing upward 29 times, versus just 25 times for heads.

The result of the coin flip also tends to be streaky. Tails has come up in six of the last seven Super Bowls, including last year, when the 49ers correctly predicted it.

In the last 23 Super Bowls, heads has been the correct call just eight times, and six came in a seven-year span, from 2007 to 2013.

Put your money on tails yet again this year, especially if you're a Chiefs fan. In the franchise's three Super Bowl appearances, their two wins came after instances where tails was the toss outcome.

Pick: Tails

Correct coin toss called

This is where things get fun.

Every year, the AFC and the NFC alternate who is the home team and who will call the coin flip. In odd-numbered Super Bowls, such as this year, the NFC is the home team, which means Kansas City will get to pick.

Last year, San Francisco correctly called the toss, which was the 15th time in 18 games the NFC team has accomplished the feat.

That is a stark contrast to the success of the AFC, which has lost each of its last three attempts to call the coin toss. The AFC's only successful coin flip call in its last 10 attempts was when Baltimore correctly guessed heads in 2013. You have to go back to New England in 1997 to find the AFC's next win.

Go with the trend here, and bet that the Chiefs will incorrectly predict the result of the toss.

Pick: No

Team to win coin toss

If you think the Chiefs will lose the toss yet again and continue the bad run for the AFC teams, then the Buccaneers would be the right choice.

For me, it’s an easy call — not because of what we’ve discussed so far, but rather what we are going to touch on with the final prop. Go with Tampa Bay to win the coin toss, because…

Pick: Tampa to win coin toss

Team that wins coin toss wins the game

… I think Kansas City is going to win the game.

The reason that matters is simple.

The last six teams to win the coin toss have lost the Super Bowl.

Not since Seattle won the coin toss at Super Bowl XLVIII has a team won the toss and lifted the Lombardi Trophy. Before this stretch began, teams were 24-24 in the Super Bowl when they won the coin toss.

Considering the Chiefs are favored in this year’s Super Bowl, I expect the trend to continue. I believe the Buccaneers will win the toss, but the Chiefs will end the night by hoisting the Lombardi Trophy.

Pick: No