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Super LVI MVP odds: Rodgers a slight favorite over Mahomes

Profile Picture: Ashley Anderson

January 18th, 2022

Green Bay Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers is not only the odds-on favorite to win the NFL MVP award for the second straight season, but the 38-year-old signal caller is the top choice to add Super Bowl LVI MVP to his trophy collection.

Rodgers' top-seeded Packers are a +350 favorite to win the NFL championship and will make their postseason debut on Saturday, when they host the sixth-seeded San Francisco 49ers.

NFL Championship Game MVP 2021/2022

Sun, February 13 2022, 11:30 PM

Rodgers, Aaron

+475

Mahomes, Patrick

+525

Allen, Josh

+650

Brady, Tom

+700

Stafford, Matthew

+1100

Adams, Davante

+1300

Henry, Derrick

+1600

Kupp, Cooper

+1600

Burrow, Joe

+1800

Tannehill, Ryan

+1800

In spite of an offseason feud with Green Bay's front office, an in-season controversy surrounding Rodgers' vaccination status, and a fractured toe suffered in November, the three-time league MVP has continued to play at the top of his game and guided the Packers to a 13-4 record, tied with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers for the best record in the league.

Rodgers by far most valuable piece in Green Bay

For the second consecutive year, Rodgers topped the NFL in passer rating (111.9), touchdown percentage (7.0), and interception percentage (0.8), while he finished third in the league in completion percentage (68.9).

He also threw multiple touchdown passes in every game he started, except for two (Week 1 against the New Orleans Saints and Week 8 against the Seattle Seahawks), to finish with 37 passing touchdowns against just four interceptions on the season.

Rodgers also went without an interception in the final seven games he played in the regular season and recorded two or more touchdown passes in all of those matchups.

Wideout Davante Adams (a +1300 choice to win Super Bowl MVP) caught 11 of Rodgers' touchdown passes and ranked third in the league in receiving yards, with 1,553. The next closest Packers receiver, Allen Lazard, tallied 513 receiving yards in 2021.

While Adams makes for an intriguing Super Bowl MVP pick, a wide receiver has won the award just seven times since 1967. Most recently, former New England Patriots wideout Julian Edelman received the honor in Super Bowl LIII, in which Edelman caught for 141 receiving yards, and his quarterback, Tom Brady, failed to record a touchdown.

Mahomes top MVP choice out of AFC

Brady is the second choice to win MVP out of the NFC (+700), while Patrick Mahomes (+525) is the top player from the AFC in the Super LVI MVP odds, followed by Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen (+650).

Mahomes and Allen are both coming off commanding performances in the Wild Card Round. Mahomes went 30-of-39 for 404 yards and five touchdowns, and threw an early interception, in the Kansas City Chiefs' 42-21 win against the Pittsburgh Steelers.

Allen arguably turned in the best performance by any quarterback in the first round of the playoffs, as he completed 21 of 25 passes for 308 yards, threw for five scores, and ran for 66 yards in a 47-17 rout of the Patriots.

Buffalo's offense was so dominant in the Wild Card Round that it became the NFL's first team in the Super Bowl era to score on each of its seven drives that didn't end with a kneeldown.

Another outing like the one against New England should push Buffalo past the Chiefs in the Divisional Round. Kansas City is a small two-point favorite at home against Buffalo, who beat Mahomes & Co., 38-20, in Arrowhead in Week 5.

Allen will need to continue to play at a high level to win the rematch. Unfortunately for him, he has not gone two games in a row without an interception this season, and had a stretch in the middle of the season where he was intercepted seven times across four consecutive games.

The Bills won the turnover battle in Week 5, but the version of the Chiefs they played in the early part of the season is a far cry from the one they'll face on Sunday.

Kansas City has won 10 of its last 11 games, and its lone defeat in that span was by three points on the road against Cincinnati.

Brady, Stafford present value in NFC

While the Packers are a popular pick to hoist the Lombardi Trophy, the Buccaneers are the reigning Super Bowl champions and are determined to defend last year's title.

On Sunday, Tampa Bay will host Matthew Stafford (+1100 to win Super Bowl MVP) and the fourth-seeded Los Angeles Rams, a team that beat Tampa Bay, 34-24 in Week 3 at SoFi Stadium. 

Both of these teams look a bit different heading into the Divisional Round. Wideout DeSean Jackson caught for a game-high 120 receiving yards back in Week 3, but was later released by the Rams and signed by the Las Vegas Raiders.

Los Angeles had also yet to sign Odell Beckham Jr., who joined the team in mid-November.

The Bucs, meanwhile, have dealt with a number of injuries and will compete without star receiver Chris Godwin, while they released wideout Antonio Brown in early January. 

Running back Leonard Fournette was placed on injured reserve following a hamstring injury in Week 15 and is questionable for Sunday's matchup. His services could greatly help Tampa Bay, which ran for just 35 yards — including a team-high 14 from Brady — in the early-season matchup with the Rams.

Whichever quarterback prevails in this Divisional Round contest has an excellent chance at coming out of the NFC Championship Game and winning Super Bowl LVI.

However, no team has appeared more destined for a Super Bowl run than Green Bay, so your best bet is to jump on Rodgers' odds now, before they get even lower as the playoffs progress.

Super Bowl LVI MVP pick: Rodgers

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