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Tails never fails! Everything you need to know about the coin toss prop bet for Super Bowl LVI

Profile Picture: Josh Powell

February 11th, 2022

The most important coin toss of the year takes place at SoFi Stadium this weekend. While millions of people across the world tune in to see the Los Angeles Rams take on the Cincinnati Bengals in Super Bowl LVI, plenty of them will be glued to the coin toss, which has quickly become one of the most hotly anticipated props of the Super Bowl.

Sun, February 13 2022, 11:30 PM

CIN Bengals

Moneyline

+163

Spread

+4

Total

O 48.5

LA Rams

Moneyline

-200

Spread

-4

Total

U 48.5

The coin toss has no favorite, there is no underdog in this market. It’s a pure 50-50 shot. But that doesn’t mean we should ignore 55 years of statistics and trends that can point us in the right direction when placing a bet.

Tails has the edge

Overall tails just has the edge, with a 28-27 record in the Super Bowl, giving that side of the coin a win percentage of 50.9%. But the coin toss does strangely seem to go in streaks.

Super Bowl Coin Toss History

Super BowlTeamsHeads or TailsToss WinnerSuper Bowl Champion
LV
Kansas City vs Tampa Bay
Heads
Kansas City
Tampa Bay
LIV
Kansas City vs San Francisco
Tails
San Francisco
Kansas City
LIII
New England vs LA Rams
Heads
LA Rams
New England
LII
New England vs Philadelphia
Heads
New England
Philadelphia
LI
Atlanta vs New England
Tails
Atlanta
New England
L
Carolina vs Denver
Tails
Carolina
Denver
XLIX
Seattle vs New England
Tails
Seattle
New England
XLVIII
Seattle vs Denver
Tails
Seattle
Seattle
XLVII
Baltimore vs San Francisco
Heads
Baltimore
Baltimore
XLVI
New England vs NY Giants
Heads
New England
NY Giants
XLV
Green Bay vs Pittsburgh
Heads
Green Bay
Green Bay
XLIV
New Orleans vs Indianapolis
Heads
New Orleans
New Orleans
XLIII
Arizona vs Pittsburgh
Heads
Arizona
Pittsburgh
XLII
NY Giants vs New England
Tails
NY Giants
NY Giants
XLI
Chicago vs Indianapolis
Heads
Chicago
Indianapolis
XL
Seattle vs Pittsburgh
Tails
Seattle
Pittsburgh
XXXIX
Philadelphia vs New England
Tails
Philadelphia
New England
XXXVIII
Carolina vs New England
Tails
Carolina
New England
XXXVII
Tampa Bay vs Oakland
Tails
Tampa Bay
Tampa Bay
XXXVI
St Louis vs New England
Heads
St Louis
New England
XXXV
NY Giants vs Baltimore
Tails
NY Giants
Baltimore
XXXIV
St Louis vs Tennessee
Tails
St Louis
St Louis
XXXIII
Atlanta vs Denver
Tails
Atlanta
Denver
XXXII
Green Bay vs Denver
Tails
Green Bay
Denver
XXXI
New England vs Green Bay
Heads
New England
Green Bay
XXX
Dallas vs Pittsburgh
Tails
Dallas
Dallas
XXIX
San Francisco vs San Diego
Heads
San Francisco
San Francisco
XXVIII
Dallas vs Buffalo
Tails
Dallas
Dallas
XXVII
Buffalo vs Dallas
Heads
Buffalo
Dallas
XXVI
Washington vs Buffalo
Heads
Washington
Washington
XXV
Buffalo vs NY Giants
Heads
Buffalo
NY Giants
XXIV
Denver vs San Francisco
Heads
Denver
San Francisco
XXIII
San Francisco vs Cincinnati
Tails
San Francisco
San Francisco
XXII
Washington vs Denver
Heads
Washington
Washington
XXI
Denver vs NY Giants
Tails
Denver
NY Giants
XX
Chicago vs New England
Tails
Chicago
Chicago
XIX
San Francisco vs Miami
Tails
San Francisco
San Francisco
XVIII
LA Raiders vs Washington
Heads
LA Raiders
LA Raiders
XVII
Miami vs Washington
Tails
Miami
Washington
XVI
San Francisco vs Cincinnati
Tails
San Francisco
San Francisco
XV
Philadelphia vs Oakland
Tails
Philadelphia
Oakland
XIV
LA Rams vs Pittsburgh
Heads
LA Rams
Pittsburgh
XIII
Dallas vs Pittsburgh
Heads
Dallas
Pittsburgh
XII
Dallas vs Denver
Heads
Dallas
Dallas
XI
Oakland vs Minnesota
Tails
Oakland
Oakland
X
Dallas vs Pittsburgh
Heads
Dallas
Pittsburgh
IX
Pittsburgh vs Minnesota
Tails
Pittsburgh
Pittsburgh
VIII
Miami vs Minnesota
Heads
Miami
Miami
VII
Miami vs Washington
Heads
Miami
Miami
VI
Miami vs Dallas
Heads
Miami
Dallas
V
Dallas vs Baltimore
Tails
Dallas
Baltimore
IV
Minnesota vs Kansas City
Tails
Minnesota
Kansas City
III
NY Jets vs Baltimore
Heads
NY Jets
NY Jets
II
Green Bay vs Oakland
Tails
Oakland
Green Bay
I
Green Bay vs Kansas City
Heads
Green Bay
Green Bay

Between Super Bowl XXXII and Super Bowl XL, the coin landed on tails in eight of the nine games, which was a remarkable run. Shortly after, between Super Bowl XLIII and Super Bowl XLVII, the flip landed on heads five times in a row — an outcome that has a probability of just 3.13%.

That run of five in a row hasn’t ever been matched, although heads has had the most recent success, winning three of the last four tosses, including last year in the clash between Kansas City and Tampa Bay.

Advantage Bengals?

The LA Rams may have home-field advantage at SoFi Stadium, but technically they are the designated away team, as the home team alternates between the AFC and NFC each year. That means the Rams have the call, and 54.5% of the time, the team that has the call loses the toss.

However, NFC teams seem to have lady luck on their side in the coin toss, as they have won the toss 67.3% of the time. When the NFC team has had the call, they’ve won the toss 64% of the time.

But could that actually be a curse rather than a blessing?

The last seven teams to have correctly called the toss have gone on to lose the Super Bowl, so history would suggest the Rams will win the toss but lose the game.

Seattle was the last team to win the coin toss and go on to win the game, while in the last 25 years, 72% of the teams that won the coin toss went on to lose the Super Bowl.

Calling the toss: added pressure or an honor?

The Rams have a 4-0 record in Super Bowl coin tosses but amazingly have never had the honor of calling the toss until now. Worryingly for the Rams, they have a 1-3 record in terms of winning the Super Bowl after winning the toss.

The Bengals, on the other hand, have called the toss in both their previous Super Bowls and have an 0-2 record in predicting the toss and an 0-2 record in winning rings!

This weekend, for the first time in their history, the Rams will go into a Super Bowl and call the toss, while for the first time in their history, the Bengals will go into a Super Bowl and not call it.

The team that has called the toss has won the Super Bowl 25 times and lost 30, so not having the pressure of calling the toss suits the Bengals.

Recommended coin toss prop bets

Coin toss outcome: tails (-103)
Correct call toss called: Yes (-106)
Team to win the coin toss: LA Rams (-106)
Coin toss to be tails and Bengals to win the game (+400)

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