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The best Patrick Mahomes passing props for Super Bowl LV

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February 1st, 2021

Arguably the best quarterback in the NFL right now, Kansas City Chiefs signal caller Patrick Mahomes is participating in his second straight Super Bowl. The Texas Tech product was instrumental in overcoming the San Francisco 49ers’ ferocious defense in Super Bowl LIV, going 26-of-42 for 286 yards with two touchdowns and two interceptions in a 31-20 victory.

What does fate have in store for Mahomes when he faces the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in Super Bowl LV? Let’s start finding out as we reveal the three best Mahomes passing props for the big game.

Sun, February 7 2021, 11:30 PM

TB Buccaneers

Moneyline

+138

Spread

+3

Total

O 56.5

KC Chiefs

Moneyline

-167

Spread

-3

Total

U 56.5

Mahomes passing yards

The Over/Under for Mahomes’ passing total in Super Bowl LV is among the highest in recent memory at 325.5 yards.

The 2018 NFL MVP averaged 312.9 yards per game in 17 starts this season. Mahomes eclipsed the 325-yard plateau in all four games he played in November, but did so only three other times all season, including the playoffs. The Bucs’ defense allowed fewer than 300 passing yards in two of their three postseason games to get to Super Bowl LV.

Mahomes is certainly capable of clearing this mark, but the stats suggest that the Under is the way to go.

NFL pick: Under 325.5 passing yards


Mahomes pass attempts

Mahomes’ pass attempts Over/Under is also a fairly high at 40.5, but there’s logic behind it.

Mahomes averaged 38.6 pass attempts in 17 starts this year, eclipsing 40 in seven of his last eight regular season starts. The Chiefs face a Bucs defense that was tops in the NFL in stuffing the run this season (80.6 rushing yards allowed per game), so don’t expect Kansas City to keep the ball on the ground for long.

Bettors should have faith in Mahomes to drop back early and often at Raymond James Stadium on Sunday.

NFL pick: Over 40.5 pass attempts


Highest completion percentage: Mahomes vs. Brady

The regular season completion percentages for Mahomes and Tampa quarterback Tom Brady were fairly similar, with the former beating the latter 66.3% to 65.7%. But recent trends suggest the former will prevail by a healthy margin in the Super Bowl.

Mahomes has completed 73.5% of his throws in two postseason games this year, while Brady has uncharacteristically struggled to the tune of a 55% completion rate in three playoff heats.

While the gulf between the two may not be as dramatic in Super Bowl LV, the Chiefs will more than likely eschew the run game in favor of short passes (easier to complete) to keep the defense honest, while the Bucs may advance the traditional run-to-set-up-the-home-run-pass approach, leading to a lower completion rate for Brady.

NFL pick: Mahomes -150

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