The best betting props for Texans vs. Chiefs
The wait is almost over. The NFL season kicks off Thursday with an AFC matchup between the Houston Texans and the reigning Super Bowl champion Kansas City Chiefs.
The Chiefs are currently nine-point home favorites at BetAmerica. The Texans will have a daunting task of trying to stop the high-flying Kansas City offense, led by quarterback Patrick Mahomes.
Here are the bets we like for the first Thursday Night Football matchup of the season.
Fri, September 11 2020, 12:20 AM
Kansas City Chiefs
The total points for this game is set at 54.5, so there is anticipation of a high-scoring game to open the new season.
The Chiefs scored the fifth most points of any team in the NFL last season, and their offense awakened in the playoffs, where Kansas City scored come-from-behind victories over Houston and Tennessee on the way to a Super Bowl title.
The Texans were in the middle of the pack last season in points scored, but they have Deshaun Watson at quarterback. His abilities can change the game considerably, given the opportunity.
There is, however, the possibility of a sluggish start in this game, considering preseason games were scrapped due to the pandemic. It may take a while for both offenses to find and stay in rhythm at full game speed, which would play favorably into the hands of the Under for total touchdowns scored, which is set at 6.5.
It’s fair to still expect that at some point one, if not both, of the offenses will eventually click, but perhaps not enough to get us that seventh touchdown needed for the Over.
Since he entered the NFL in 2017, Deshaun Watson has shown an ability to make dynamic plays, both passing the ball and rushing it.
Last year, Watson didn’t have to run as much as he did behind a porous offensive line in 2018 – when he rushed 99 times for 551 yards — but he did score a career-best seven rushing touchdowns last season.
He also scored a rushing touchdown against Kansas City in the playoffs last season.
Bill O’Brien was shredded on social media, after he traded star receiver DeAndre Hopkins for Arizona running back David Johnson in the offseason. It’s a good bet Johnson will score the bulk of the touchdowns on the ground for the Texans this season.
If the Chiefs focus their defense on shutting down Johnson in goal-line situations on Thursday, that could open the door for Watson to tuck the ball away on the read option and try for the end zone.
Total points first quarter
As mentioned earlier, these teams could be mired in a sluggish start from opening kickoff.
It’s the season opener, so there is bound to be some nerves. Factor in a lack of preseason games and there may be some issues with timing for both offenses. That invites the possibility for the Under to hit for total points in the first quarter, set at 10.5.
If this market was available for the season opener in each of the last nine years, Under 10.5 would’ve hit seven times. The last time the Over would have paid out was in 2017, when the New England Patriots and Kansas City Chiefs combined for 14 first-quarter points.
The Chiefs offense can be dynamic. However, the trend dating back to 2011 has been a slow start for the offenses, with Under 10.5 first-quarter points dominating.