Top 5 overreaction NFL plays for Week 2

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September 11th, 2019

Week 1 of the 2019 NFL season is in the books, and the overreactions are already pouring in. The Browns are terrible and overrated. The Bengals are actually a good team. The Patriots are unbeatable. The Dolphins would lose to Clemson. The Cowboys have their greatest offense since the days of Aikman and Smith.

This happens every year in the NFL. We get so excited for the season that we break down exactly how good a team is going to be all offseason, only to see something completely different in Week 1. However, this should not be an indictment on the team's season. Many teams do not play any of their starters in the preseaso and Week 1 is their warmup game.

Week 2 is the perfect opportunity to take advantage of Week 1 overreactions. Here are my top five plays going against those knee jerks.

Indianapolis Colts at Tennessee Titans (-3), Sunday, 1 p.m., CBS 

The Titans completely dismantled the Browns on the road last week with a 43-13 victory. The defense amassed five sacks and three interceptions, including one for a touchdown. The public will be all over the Titans after that performance, but  Indianapolis played well last week in a road overtime loss to the Chargers. The Indy offensive line is much better than Cleveland's and only allowed two sacks to the Chargers vaunted front seven.

Pick: Colts +3

San Francisco 49ers at Cincinnati Bengals (-2), Sunday, 1 p.m., FOX

The Bengals almost pulled off a huge upset last week in Seattle. Andy Dalton was able to carve up the Seahawks secondary for 418 yards and two touchdowns. The Cincinnati defense also held Seattle's rushing attack to 2.9 yards per carry. However, the Seahawks have a history of underperforming in September (6-7 in their last 13 games).

The Bengals are still a bad team, and the 49ers secondary will be much better than the Seahawks secondary. The Niners managed nine pass deflections and three interceptions, including two returned for touchdowns, last week. I love the Niners as an underdog here.

Pick: 49ers +2

Jacksonville Jaguars at Houston Texans (-8.5), Sunday, 1 p.m., CBS 

The Jaguars lost their starting quarterback and were run over by the Chiefs in Week 1, while the Texans almost just took down the Saints at the Superdome in a prime-time game. The gut reaction is the Texans will dominate the Jags at home. However, the Jaguars still have an elite defense, even though it gave up points to the juggernaut that is the Patrick Mahomes show.

Gardner Minshew showed he is a formidable quarterback when he replaced the injured Nick Foles and fired off a 22-for-25 passing performance in Week 1. The Jaguars will go back to their 2017 roots of strong defense and ball control on offense to keep this game within one possession.

Pick: Jaguars +8.5

Chicago Bears (-2.5) at Denver Broncos, Sunday, 4:25 p.m., FOX 

The Bears offense looked abysmal in the opening-night game and only put up three points at home, but the game plan was much more the problem than the talent. Chicago needs to get back to a balanced offense to support its stellar defense. The Bears still only allowed 213 yards last week, even though it lost the time-of-possession battle.
The Broncos did not look good Monday night in Oakland, and this spread is excessively low for the talent difference. The Bears are still a Super Bowl contender and will win this game with ease.

Pick: Bears -2.5

Cleveland Browns (-2.5) at New York Jets, Monday, 8:15 p.m., ESPN 

The sky is already falling in Cleveland. The offensive line was a problem, but those problems will fix themselves. The other issue last week was turnovers (another problem that can be solved quickly).

The Browns outgained the Titans 346-339 in yards last week. The Jets only managed 223 yards Sunday against the Bills. The Browns are much more than 2.5 points better than the Jets, and they will bounce back in a major way Monday night.

Pick: Browns -2.5

How did you evaluate Week 1 of the NFL season? Make sure to put some money behind those opinions at BetAmerica!