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Vikings vs. Packers: NFL Week 17 betting odds, preview, and pick

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December 28th, 2021

One team is fighting for a bye and home-field advantage in the playoffs, while the other team is fighting to make the playoffs. A lot is on the line when the Minnesota Vikings and Green Bay Packers face off on Sunday night in Lambeau Field.

Let's examine this NFC North matchup in depth, starting with the latest betting odds.

Mon, January 3 2022, 1:20 AM

GB Packers

Moneyline

-305

Spread

-7

Total

O 48

MIN Vikings

Moneyline

+240

Spread

+7

Total

U 48

Desperation time for Minnesota

After losing last week to the Los Angeles Rams, the Vikings now find themselves one game behind the No. 7 seed and final playoff position in the NFC. With so many teams in the hunt for those final two Wild Card spots, this game against the Packers is just about a must-win for Minnesota’s playoff hopes.

The good news for the Vikings is that they have won two consecutive games against the Packers, dating back to last season. The bad news is that the Packers need this win to stay in position for the No. 1 seed in the NFC, and they are undefeated at home this season.

The Vikings will need to attack the Packers with their ground game. That is where they will find their biggest mismatch. The Packers have allowed 166.3 rushing yards per game over the past three games. Whether it is Dalvin Cook or Alexander Mattison, the Vikings will need to keep feeding them the ball against this Green Bay defense.

Packers can taste a Super Bowl run

The Packers now find themselves alone atop the NFC standings and control their own destiny for the No. 1 seed and home-field advantage through the playoffs. This would be massive given that they are undefeated at home this season and Aaron Rodgers has only lost three home games in the past three seasons combined.

However, the defense has been struggling as of late and putting a lot of pressure on Rodgers and the offense to put up big numbers. The Packers have not held an opponent under 20 points in the last five games, and they have allowed 30 or more points three times in those five games.

The Vikings defense is one of the worst in the NFL in yards allowed, both on the ground and through the air. The Packers will need to find a more balanced attack and utilize their run game to keep their defense off the field and avoid a possible shootout.

Vikings vs. Packers Injury Report

Minnesota VikingsGreen Bay Packers
RB Dalvin Cook: Questionable (illness)
LB Za'Darius Smith: Questionable (back)
C Mason Cole: Out (elbow)
CB Jaire Alexander: Questionable (shoulder)
OT Rashod Hill: Questionable (illness)
WR Marquez Valdes-Scantling: Questionable (illness)
WR Adam Thielen: Questionable (ankle)
CB Kevin King: Questionable (illness)
OT David Bakhtiari: Doubtful (knee)
G Billy Turner: Questionable (knee)

Vikings and Packers betting trends

  • The underdog is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings between these teams
  • Vikings are 5-2 ATS in their last seven road games
  • Vikings are 43-19 ATS in their last 62 games following a straight-up loss
  • Packers are 8-1 ATS in their last nine vs. the NFC
  • Packers are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games as a favorite
  • The Over is 13-3 in the Vikings' last 16 games following a straight-up loss
  • The Over is 10-1 in the Packers' last 11 games in January

Get ready for a high-scoring thriller

Even though both teams will have a mismatch in favor of their running games, I expect this to be a shootout, as both defenses will struggle to make stops. Whether it is Rodgers lighting up the passing game or Aaron Jones running it all over the field, the Vikings will struggle on defense.

However, both teams are excellent at forcing turnovers without turning the ball over themselves. The Packers are first in the league with a +16 turnover margin, and the Vikings are sixth in the league with a +9 turnover margin.

Ultimately, the Packers offense will just be too much for the Vikings to keep up with. I like the Packers to win this game with a lot of points.

Score prediction: Packers 40, Vikings 32

NFL Week 17 picks: Packers -6.5, Over 48

Vikings vs. Packers Pick powered by The Quant Edge

Our predictive engine is calling for the Packers to cover the spread and the score to go Over the projected total.


 

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