Von Miller is an intriguing longshot in Super Bowl MVP betting
Quarterbacks have won 31 of the 55 Super Bowl MVP awards over the years. However, the odds on this year's field generals are not ideal for bettors looking for real value. Los Angeles Rams QB Matthew Stafford is +120, while Cincinnati Bengals QB Joe Burrow is +225.
Let's examine some Super Bowl MVP award trends and look a little further down the odds board to find a strong value play.
Pick from the winning team
In the 55-year history of Super Bowl MVPs, a player from the winning team has won the award all, but once. So, if you are looking to find the right guy, you first need to pick the winning team.
The Los Angeles Rams are currently four-point favorites in the game and have some unfinished business after losing in Super Bowl LIII. They also have a big advantage on the defensive line against the Cincinnati Bengals’ offensive line.
The Rams finished third in the NFL this season with 50 sacks, while the Bengals allowed the third most sacks in the league at 55. In the postseason, Cincinnati has allowed 12 sacks in their three games. The Rams have sacked their opponents five times in three games this postseason.
#RT @RamsNFL: .@VonMiller was built for these moments.— Esther Valadez (@EstherValadez15) January 25, 2022
📊 Four total tackles, sack, QB hit, forced fumble + fumble recovery vs. Tampa Bay. pic.twitter.com/DWIS5sSQug
With this massive advantage combined with the point spread, there is a good chance that the Rams will win this game. Therefore, let’s look for some value with a player from Los Angeles’s roster.
Rams Super Bowl MVP Options
Odell Beckham Jr.
Defensive MVPs are not unheard of
While this game could very well be a high-scoring affair (the total is currently 48.5), there could still be a defensive MVP. In the history of the Super Bowl, a defensive player has won the MVP award 10 times, including twice in the last eight years.
The Seattle Seahawks scored 43 points in Super Bowl XLVIII and linebacker Malcom Smith still took home the MVP award. Super Bowl XXXVII finished with a score of 48-21, but defensive back Dexter Jackson took home the award. So, high scoring games can still produce defensive players as Super Bowl MVP.
🗓️ 7 years ago today...— The Action Network (@ActionNetworkHQ) February 2, 2021
Super Bowl XLVII: Seahawks vs. Broncos (-1.5 | O/U: 47)
• Safety as first score of the game paid 60/1.
• Seattle covered the spread by 36.5 points (Most in SB history)
• Malcolm Smith won SB MVP at 20/1 odds with the field. pic.twitter.com/evVirl7SPH
Von Miller has won before
We mentioned how the Rams defensive line will have a major mismatch against the Bengals offensive line. That leads to look at two obvious options in Aaron Donald and Von Miller.
Miller won Super Bowl MVP in Super Bowl 50 when the Denver Broncos won 24-10 over the Carolina Panthers, and he finished the game with six tackles, 2.5 sacks, and one pass defended.
Repeat winners are not unheard of in Super Bowl MVP history. Five players have won multiple SB MVP awards including Tom Brady, Joe Montana, Bart Starr, Terry Bradshaw, and Eli Manning. Von Miller could be the first non-QB to join this list.
With Aaron Donald likely to receive a double team on most of the snaps on the inside, look for Miller to take advantage of one-on-one matchups on the outside. Harold Landry and Bud Dupree combined for 2.5 sacks and two quarterback hurries on the outside in the Divisional Round game for the Tennessee Titans against the Bengals. I love the odds here on Miller as a longshot to take home this award again.
Super Bowl LVI MVP pick: Von Miller (+3000)