Week 10 NFL Betting - Three Big Favorites in Late Games

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Jay Ginsbach

November 10th, 2018

Three late afternoon games in Week 10 on Sunday, Nov. 11 as the Los Angeles teams look to continue their winning ways as big favorites. The Rams (8-1) are a 10-point home favorite over NFC West rival Seattle (4-4), while the Chargers (6-2) are trying to keep up with the Chiefs in the AFC West and are expected to get a solid road win as a 10-point favorite over the lifeless Raiders (1-7) in Week 10 NFL betting. The Packers (3-4-1) are also laying 10 points over the Dolphins (5-4-1). Let's see where the value is in the late game slate!

LA Chargers -10.0 at Oakland Raiders

I rarely lay road favorites and I won’t make an exception here with the Chargers posting as big road chalk. In fact, double-digit road favorites in the NFL are 63-82 ATS (43%) over the last 20 years. But I can’t support the Raiders until they show some signs of life and the ability to make more stops on defense. Oakland is allowing a league-worst 6.8 yards per play and it was worse last Thursday surrendering 7.5 YPPL and 405 yards to the last-place 49ers and third string QB Nick Mullens in a 34-3 Raiders demolition.

A bounce back is often in order for teams off an embarrassing defeat on national TV, but this Raiders defense is so bad that they also allow a league-worst 144.5 rushing yards per game that’s been chewed up in their last three outings. The Chargers are No. 5 in the league in rushing at 128.9 YPG and tied for the league lead at 5.2 yards per rush as both Melvin Gordon and Austin Ekeler are averaging at least 5.4 yards per rush. Add in veteran QB Philip Rivers' strong season with 2,236 passing yards at a superb 9.09 yards per pass and a 19/3 touchdown-to-interception ratio and you have a recipe for disaster for the Raiders in Week 10 NFL betting.

Rivers is exceptional in play-action and the Raiders must try to bring more bodies to the line of scrimmage to slow the run, but a capable quarterback will tear them apart. Many ‘under’ situations in this match-up including 12 of the last 14 Raiders same-season rematches going UNDER the total. The first meeting was a 26-10 Chargers in Week 5, and both the side and total have been juiced a bit. A total of 50 suggests that either Los Angeles will run the score by themselves, or that Oakland will find some room late in the game when Carr is throwing from behind yet again. Either way, I like the OVER.

Week 10 NFL Betting Pick: LA/OAK OVER 50.0

Seattle Seahawks at LA Rams (-9.5)

The sharps are taking Seattle, and I can’t disagree as the Seahawks' run profile combined with the largest underdog role ever for QB Russell Wilson makes Seattle an attractive big dog. The Seahawks covered as 7-point home underdogs in Week 5 in a 33-31 defeat. Wilson is also 18-10 ATS as an underdog in his career in Seattle. Both teams’ defensive yards have suffered with its top cornerbacks sidelined. Seattle leads the league in rushing attempts averaging 31.8 per game. That’s how you slow the Rams offense - by keeping them on the sidelines while controlling the ball, clock and chains. But before you pull the trigger on Seattle, get the game day status of RB Chris Carson (hip), OL D.J. Fluker (calf) and safety Bradley McDougald (knee), who were all injured in last week’s loss against the Chargers. All of them missed practice Thursday in preparation for the division showdown with the Rams. Coach Pete Carroll has also said CB Neiko Thorpe (hamstring) won’t play this week.

The Rams have so many weapons and are very balanced on offense with RB Todd Gurley leading a LA rushing attack that is tops in the NFL averaging 144.3 rushing yards per game, and one of three teams like Seattle to run the ball at least 30 times per game. Los Angeles leads the NFL averaging 447.1 yards per game on offense and the 6.9 yards per play is tops in the NFC. I’ll suggest Seattle if they have some of the key players healthy and ready to play, but defer to a game time decision as they won’t beat the Rams without more key contributors.

Week 10 NFL Betting Pick - Seattle +9.5

Miami Dolphins at Green Bay Packers (-10.0)

The Packers return home off of two rough road losses suffered against the Patriots and Rams. Now they should bounce back big against a Dolphins team missing two offensive linemen and its key wide receiver, Albert Wilson, who leads the NFL in yards after catch and had exploded in his last full game against the Bears. Quarterback Brock Osweiler has struggled without Wilson and a healthy offensive line. Don't overthink this one. The Packers are in line for a rebound effort with a double-digit win that heals the wounds endured away from Lambeau the last two weeks.

Week 10 NFL Betting Pick - Green Bay -10.0

Fairway Jay is a professional handicapper based out of Las Vegas. He focuses primarily on the four majors along with college football and college basketball. You can follow him on Twitter @FairwayJay.