Week 12 Thanksgiving Football Betting - WAS vs. DAL -7.5

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D.S. Williamson

November 20th, 2018

It’s impossible to downplay the Week 12 Thanksgiving Football betting battle between the Washington Redskins and Dallas Cowboys. With a victory, Dallas could tie Washington atop the division.

That’s hard to believe. Only a couple of weeks ago, the Cowboys were 3-5 while the Redskins were 5-3. More than a few NFL analysts had put a gigantic fork into the cooked Cowboys.

Jerry Jones then made the biggest sin of all, trading a Round 1 pick for an underachieving wide receiver. At first, it looked like the naysayers were right. Even Troy Aikman called for a mass restructuring as haters took glee in the Titans' 28-14 win in Big D. But, the Cowboys bounced back with two impressive road wins against the Eagles and Falcons.

Dallas has a real shot at winning the NFC East Division. Will they get even with their biggest rivals on Thursday? Or, will Washington go two games up on the Cowboys?

NFL WEEK 12 THANKSGIVING FOOTBALL BETTING Washington Redskins at Dallas Cowboys Thursday, November 21st – AT&T Stadium – 12:30pm ET Odds: Cowboys -7.5 (40.5)

Redskins Will Count on Colt

First, let’s talk some about Alex Smith’s injury. It might have been one of the worst I’ve ever seen. Everyone brought up the fact that Joe Theismann, who suffered the worst football injury I’ve ever seen, watched on. That's a really unfortunate coincidence, especially when you consider that Theismann never played football again. Alex Smith is well on his way to 35 years of age. NFL players that old don’t make comebacks from injuries like the one Smith suffered on Sunday.

With Smith headed to retirement, Colt McCoy is not only the starter this season, but he’s the starter until Washington comes up with another option. Smith was supposed to at least steady the Redskins for a couple years, and they don't have anyone in the wings worth developing. McCoy isn't terrible, per se, but he is no franchise guy. Injuries have derailed a somewhat promising career, that is getting another shot at the big leagues.

When it comes to Week 12 Thanksgiving Football betting, Washington’s backup signal-caller faces a Cowboys’ squad that holds opponents to 331.1 total yards. McCoy’s got only a few days to figure out how he and the Redskins will score against Dallas’ ferocious defense.

Two bright sides: Colt McCoy went to Texas so he might feel right at home (maybe?). The former Longhorn has also been in Washington since 2014, so he will have a lot familiarity with what Jay Gruden wants to accomplish on the field. He looked adequate on Sunday in relief of the injured Smith, and is a known commodity within the confines of Washington's system.

The downside? He's still a guy who has only played eight games in five season for his current team.

Cowboys Hope To Hold Momentum

The Cowboys must feel good going into the this matchup. Things clicked against the rival Eagles in Week 10. Then in Week 11, Dallas put together a complete game in every phase when beating the tough Atlanta Falcons on the road.

For the Cowboys, they hope to remain consistent, rush the football well, play hard defense, and only use Dak when they must. If the Cowboys can stay consistent,  they’ll have a big shot at tying the Redskins for the division lead.

That's a whole lot of generalities to go on, but that's also the problem with the NFC East - the whole group is seemingly falling apart. Amazingly, Dallas is the only one that has their act together and they've played very good football over the last two weeks. Momentum can mean everything in sports, especially when you're rolling in to a team that just lost their starting quarterback.

Week 12 Thanksgiving Football Betting Analysis

After opening at -4.5, money monsooned onto the Cowboys. Dallas is now a -7.5 choice. The line makes sense because without Smith, there’s no telling how effective Washington will be. But, I’ve got my doubts about this Cowboys team playing at the level that they did against the Eagles and Falcons. The Eagles are reeling while Atlanta has only played well in spots this season.

The trends are all over Washington in this matchup:  9-2 ATS in the last 11 in Dallas, underdog going 31-10 ATS in the last 41 meetings, and Dallas going 4-11 ATS versus a team with a winning record.

I’m skeptical about the Cowboys and the trends back Washington. Dallas just feels too obvious. I’m taking the points.

Week 12 Thanksgiving Football Betting Free Pick: Redskins +7.5