Week 8 Thursday Night Football Betting Preview

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D.S. Williamson

October 24th, 2018

The Houston Texans put their our-game winning streak on the line in NFL Week 8 Thursday Night Football betting as they host the Miami Dolphins and a quarterback from their dark past. Brock Osweiler gets the nod against his former team after being ostracized by a locker room that had no time for him. Will Miami get back to winning after losing three of their last four games, or will the hot streak continue for the Texans?

NFL WEEK 8 THURSDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL BETTING Miami Dolphins at Houston Texans Thursday, Oct. 25 – NRG Stadium – 8:20pm ET Odds: Houston -7.5 (44.5)

Dolphins Offense vs Texans Defense Ryan Tannehill remains out with a shoulder injury, which means Brock Osweiler will start again. Osweiler completes 67.5%. He’s thrown 6 touchdowns, only 2 interceptions, and has posted 94.9 and 114.9 quarterback ratings in two starts. He's on a bit of a solid run here, giving him the slightest bit of momentum as he returns to Houston for the first time since being traded away. Osweiler notoriously signed an ill-fated, $72 million deal with Houston to be their starting man, but was routinely benched during the 2016 season before being traded to the Browns at the end his first year with the Texans. Morphed in to a journeyman since then, Osweiler now has the chance to exorcise some of the demons from his past.

The Texans will probably lather at the opportunity to go after Osweiler, and will have the opportunity to pillage a team that's lost its top two wide-receivers. Albert Wilson is on the mend, and DeVantae Parker is being held inactive presumably while the team shops him around. Beyond that, Houston hasn’t allowed more than 16 points in their last 3. They rank 9th in yards allowed, including holding opponents to 237.7 passing. Miami won’t have luck on the ground because teams average 92.1 versus Houston.

Houston has always been advertised as a strong defensive unit, but have only recently started to perform up to expectation. They get the edge against Miami without question.

Edge: Texans   

Texans Offense vs Dolphins Defense Houston’s only scored 30 points or more once this season. Opponents have held them to 20 points or less in 5-of-8. Texans average 371.1 yards, making it difficult to give them the edge even though Dolphins allow over 400 yards on average. We saw last weekend what Houston looked like when they got Lamar Miller (a former Dolphin) rolling.  Miami ranks 29th in rushing yards allowed. Once Houston gets the run game going, Deshaun Watson will burn the secondary. Texans get the edge again.

Edge: Texans

Week 8 Thursday Night Football Betting Analysis and ATS Prediction The line on this game bumped from HOU -7.0 to HOU -7.5 pretty quickly, and may get even farther away from Miami by game time.

Trend wise, this is a down play for both sides. The Dolphins are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 road games and 0-6 ATS in their last 6 road games versus a team with a winning home record. Houston’s 2-10 ATS in their last 12 and 0-5 ATS in their last 5 at home.

With no significant trends advantage, the spread matters more, but Houston faces a team that’s recorded only 11 sacks and allows opponents to convert third downs at 45.8%. When Deshaun Watson has time, he’s one of the best in the NFL.

I’ll lay the number on the Texans.

Week 8 Thursday Night Football Betting Free Pick: Texans -7.5