Week 9 Thursday Night Football Betting - Oakland at San Francisco

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D.S. Williamson

October 31st, 2018

[Editor's Update - The Week 9 Thursday Night Football betting line is now SF -1.0 with the announcement that third-stringer Nick Mullens will be the starting quarterback for San Francisco. This will be the first game for Mullens, an undrafted player who has played for the 49ers' practice squad for the past year and a half. The majority of this article endorses San Francisco based on their defensive prowess.]


NFL WEEK 9 THURSDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL BETTING Oakland Raiders at San Francisco 49ers Thursday, November 1st – Levi’s Stadium – 8:20pm ET Odds: 49ers (-3) 46.5

[Editor's Update - 49ers (-1.0), 43.5]

Before the season started, plenty of NFL fans circled Week 9’s Thursday night game between the Oakland Raiders and San Francisco 49ers. Heading into the season, odds on both to win the Super Bowl had plummeted to below +3000. At one point, San Francisco was an +1100 choice to win the 2019 Super Bowl.

Just in case you haven’t paid attention, not only will neither team not win the Super Bowl, neither team’s going to sniff the playoffs. Heading into Week 9, the Raiders are 1-6 while San Francisco’s 1-7. Which horrible NFL team gets it done on Thursday night?

To Win, Raiders Must Play with Pride

On Monday, the Cleveland Browns fired coach Hue Jackson because his players had quit on him. Even though the Raiders have quit on Jon Gruden, Oakland’s upper management won’t fire their coach. They're not willing to eat the $100 million contract just yet, even though that's what they're going to end up doing for the early stages of the deal.

Nothing’s fazed Gruden this season. It’s almost like he drank his own genius labelled Kool-Aid. In April, he had no problem trading down and selecting Kolton Miller, a player that’s nowhere near ready to start at left tackle, in Round 1. Then, about a week ago, he had no problem trading his best wide receiver, Amari Cooper, to the Dallas Cowboys. In-between that he traded Khlalil Mack away.

Gruden’s been collecting Round 1 picks like a leprechaun grabbing gold coins. He’s got Raider Nation convinced he’s made some smart moves. Only time will tell, but based on the way the Raiders have played so far, Gruden’s lost his mojo.

The Raiders have one shot of winning on Thursday night. That’s to play with pride. If they don’t, San Francisco will squash them.

49ers Try to Prevent Implosion

Unlike the Raiders, San Francisco has played with more passion than you probably think they have. The 49ers made a gallant effort a couple of Monday night’s game losing 30-33 versus Green Bay at Lambeau as a +9 dog.

The Rams blew out the 49ers, but the Niners bounced back with a great effort in a 15-18 loss to Arizona in Week 8. If San Francisco can prevent another late game implosion (they allowed Arizona to score 15 points in the 4th quarter) they should beat Oakland and cover on Thursday.

That’s not a stunning endorsement, but what can you do when two of the worst football teams in the league throw down against each other?

Week 9 Thursday Night Football Betting Trends and Final Analysis

So far, NFL bettors have decided that this is San Francisco’s game to lose. Action has only fallen on the 49ers, which is why they’ve gone from -3.5 to -3.

The trends favor the Raiders, but it’s difficult to put stock into trends because both teams are so different right now than they were when the season started. If you’re looking for a strong trend to base your wager, Oakland is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 road games versus a team with a losing home record.

Overall, stats are also meaningless in this matchup. But, there is one stat that might be able to use to shed some light on this game:  the 49ers average 133.6 rush yards per while Oakland allows 144.7 rush yards.

The team with more heart also has the better rushing attack? I’m not going against that.

Week 9 Thursday Night Football Betting Free Pick: 49ers -3