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Canadiens vs. Lightning: Stanley Cup Final Game 5 odds, preview, and pick

Profile Picture: Robert Criscola

July 7th, 2021

The Montreal Canadiens managed to stave off elimination in Game 4 of the Stanley Cup Final on Monday night, beating the Tampa Bay Lightning 3-2 in overtime. They avoided the embarrassment of becoming the first team to be swept in the final playoff round since 1998 with a gritty effort.

But can the Canadiens repeat the result as the series shifts to Amalie Arena for Game 5? Let’s start finding out.

Montreal Canadiens at Tampa Bay Lightning, 8:00 p.m. ET, NBC

Thu, July 8 2021, 12:00 AM

TB Lightning

Moneyline

-245

Puck Line

-1.5

Total

O 5

MTL Canadiens

Moneyline

+195

Puck Line

+1.5

Total

U 5

The Lightning should not miss their chance to take a second straight Stanley Cup on Wednesday night as they play host to the underdog Canadiens in Game 5.

Tampa was a bit unlucky to lose Game 4, as they outshot Montreal 34-21. They had 11 of the game’s first 12 shots, yet it was the Habs who broke through first on a goal by Josh Anderson. The Bolts were left playing catch-up for most of the evening – an unfamiliar feeling in this series.

The Lightning have thoroughly out-played the Canadiens in this series, starting between the pipes. Game 4 marked the first time Habs netminder Carey Price posted a better save % than Andrei Vasilevskiy. The former’s save % for the series is .867, while the latter’s is .932.

Tampa hasn’t even needed huge efforts from their star forwards to build this Stanley Cup Final lead. Nikita Kucherov and Brayden Point have been limited to two total points over Games 2, 3, and 4. If they awaken from their slumber in Game 5, you can put the champagne on ice.

NHL pick: Lightning to win in regulation (-137)


Featured player prop: Steven Stamkos to score at least one point (-139)

Steven Stamkos simply seems due to register at least a point in Game 5, and is available at a nice price to do so.

The Lightning captain has been conspicuously absent from the scoresheet since scoring in the Stanley Cup Final opener. Over the last three games of this series, he’s failed to record even a secondary assist. Stamkos has also taken just three shots on goal in that span. Unless he’s playing hurt unbeknownst to most, it’s a very surprising development.

Give a look at Stamkos to score a goal as well (+170), but for the more risk-averse, the point prop is the better option.

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