Pick 5 Preview: Hollywood Park – July 4, 2013

Matt Carter

July 3rd, 2013

The feature race on the July 4 holiday card at Hollywood Park is the Grade 2 Swaps, but with only a field of four and a pace standout in the race, it looks like the pick-5 is the play. So let’s dive right in.

The opener in a state-bred allowance race on the turf for fillies and mares and Market Quote should once again be the favorite. Trainer John Sherriffs has left the son of After Market in California as he has moved east with many of his horses. Market Quote had one of the best races for a debut runner back in January and need only clear sailing late to get the job done on Thursday. Another Flashback and Krazypapaya are the upsetters and should have better position in the early stages.

Taffeta Disaster and Liar Liar Liar are the principles in race two, dropping out of maiden special weight races into this $20,000 maiden claimer. Taffeta Disaster was third as this level over the Golden Gate turf in April while Liar Liar Liar makes his claiming debut. Bas is a threat on the stretch out and may set the pace from the rail under jockey Mario Gutierrez. My Pal Ariana will likely break her maiden one day and gets a rider upgrade with the switch to Bejarano.

If Chief Havoc runs back to his last race, an allowance win over the track, then the other three runners will be battling for second in the Grade 2 Swaps. Dice Flavor, Tiz a Minister and Java’s War are all stone-cold closers. Java’s War has not broke well in his last two while Tiz a Minster has no early speed whatsoever. Dice Flavor may be closer to the pace second off the layoff, but even his best win was from almost ten lengths off the early pace. Color Chief Havoc gone in the third.

Only a field of six line up for race four with Cee’s the Year the mare to beat. The five-year-old California-bred won her last race with something left in the tank and has come back to work twice since. She is back up in class to a level where she finished third by five lengths, a length behind Town Belle, who is also in this race. Town Belle has not won in her last seven races since October 2011 and is hard to trust. Hawfinch and Unkept Rendez Vous drop in class and can upset the favorite. Dilly’s Dancer goes first off the claim for trainer Jack Carava, one race after being eased, but may be the pace-setter.

The pick-5 finale is a sprint race for three-year-olds and upward and this race is likely to determine the payout. The horses are all closely rated and it may be worth using the “all” button especially if Market Quote and Chief Havoc win their races.

First post on Thursday at Hollywood Park is 4:00 pm ET.