Race Preview: Shadwell Turf Mile - Keeneland, October 5, 2013

Matt Carter

October 5th, 2013

The payout of the pick-5 on Saturday at Keeneland hinges on the result of race nine, where Wise Dan is going to be at or below his morning line of 2-5 looking for his tenth straight victory. He won the Shadwell last year by a very comfortable two and one-quarter lengths, which set him up nicely for the Breeders' Cup Mile. The scary thing is that he may be better this year. His tour-de-force in the Woodbine Mile last month was breathtaking. Any repeat of that effort, and he wins for fun, in a canter, by a pole, wrapped up with Johnny V counting his 10%. Of course, it's always good to play against the favorite.

Wise Dan sat the perfect trip behind two dueling front runners in the Woodbine Mile and that scenario could happen again in the Shadwell Turf Mile. Winning Prize won his U.S. debut in wire-to-wire fashion at Del Mar and he will be on the lead along with Silver Max, wire-to-wire winner of the Grade 3 Bernard Baruch at Saratoga in August. Those two need to slow it down early if they are going to have something left for the drive. We have probably seen the best of Silver Max, but the Argentine-bred Winning Prize may just have more to show.

Two interesting long shots are Turallure and Hogy, two horses at 20-1 and 30-1 on the morning line. Turallure is trained by Charles Lopresti, who also trains Wise Dan, and Turallure has some back class that would be good enough to win the Shadwell. In 2011, Turallure won the Woodbine Mile and was second, beat just a nose, in the Breeders' Cup Mile. He had no chance over a speed favorite Saratoga turf course when he finished fourth behind Silver Max last out and over a fair turf course rates a long look.

Hogy scratched out of the Phoenix, a main track sprint, on Friday to instead run here. The four-year-old gelding has won 11 of his 19 career races including the $250,000 Presque Isle Mile and Grade 3 Hanshin Cup, both one-mile races. Hogy should be sitting in the second flight, close to Wise Dan. Jockey Joe Rocco may need to move early to get the jump on the favorite, but that might not even matter. If Wise Dan does get beat, the pick-5 is going to come back huge.

First post on Saturday at Keeneland is 1:05 pm ET with the Shadwell Turf Mile off at 5:30.