Race Preview: The Stallion Series 3 YO Colts and Geldings - Harrah's Philadelphia - June 13, 2013

Eb Netr

June 11th, 2013

Race 8

There are 7 races in this series on tonight's card. Race 8 is the 4th of them. The standout seems to be Good Day Mate with Ron Pierce driving for Chris Oakes. As a team, they have 33% for wins and a .506 UDR. It's very hard to discount that, especially when the horse is one that has consistently hit the board in classier races. From the 5 post, which has a significant edge at Harrah's, they will be hard to beat. Trying to do that will be 7 other horses.

Nuclear Standoff, did well at Rideau Carleton, but not at this level. He will need a very lucky break and more early speed than he has shown recently to get anywhere near the lead in this race.

Native's Revenge is coming out of NW2 races and has the same lack of class contention that Nuclear Standoff has. While he has posted some good numbers for speed, it wasn't at the level of today's contest and it was at Pocono, not Harrah's. However, he has hit the board both times in his 2 races at Harrah's.

Momma's Jolt was only a length and a half out in his last race at Harrah's, albeit in a non-winners of 12,500, last 5. His record is 2 out of 6 wins at Harrah's. At the Meadows he managed a second in the Stallion Series with a pretty good speed rating. Andy Miller has the drive this time for Sam Beegle.

OK Fame has George Napolitano who drove him to a first place finish last time out at Pocono. Mark Ford is known for getting his horses ready for these stakes races, so OK Fame will be in top form. Whether he can leave early enough with as much early speed as there is in this race is the question. If the track comes up sloppy, like it was at Yonkers where he broke at the start in a qualifier, his chances might be downgraded.

Good Day Mate was a disappointing 7th in the Rooney at Yonkers, and has never won at Harrah's in 3 starts, although he was second in all 3 starts. He looks like he lays over this field as far as class and speed goes, and this race may give him his breakthrough win at Harrah's. He'll be the chalk, almost certainly.

Movie Sequel has won at Harrah's with 1 win and 4 place finishes in 13 starts here. With Laag on his dam's side, he could be very dangerous on an off track, especially a sloppy track. He was second to Nuclear Attraction in their last race by only a length, at a lower level but he did post a good speed figure in that race.

Modern Warfare hasn't managed to hit the board in this series but had a good record as a 2 year old last year. It may be that he just needs more races to get back into stride or he may be outclassed here. His post position certainly doesn't help matters, but Tim Tetrick, with 20% and Brian Brown with 29% for pace wins help his prospects.

Pronology Z Tam has his work cut out for him with a post position that is the worst draw for paces at Harrah's. He CAN leave, as he showed 3 races back where he got out first and came in second. But that was from the 5 post, where everything is easier than it is from the outside of 7 other horses. Mike Lachance takes the reins from Pat Lachance this time and has a 33% win average driving for Pat.

This race may be decided at the outset if Good Day Mate gets the lead, because he can also close when he has to. Momma's Jolt is a hard closer, as well and I expect him to be trying to gain on the leaders at the end if he has the running room. Track condition will be very important in this race, because there's more than one horse in the race that either loves or hates an off track. Handicap accordingly.