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Homeracing

2015 Preakness BRIS Speed Rating Report

Profile Picture: James Scully

May 11th, 2015

American Pharoah will attempt to capitalize upon his Kentucky Derby success as a solid favorite in Saturday’s Preakness Stakes. A winner of five straight, the Bob Baffert-trained colt appears unlikely to regress from a BRIS Speed rating perspective, generating a 100 at Churchill Downs.

In fact, we can expect to see American Pharoah earn a higher number in the Preakness.

Nine of the last 18 Kentucky Derby winners captured the Preakness Stakes two weeks later and six posted a better BRIS Speed rating at Pimlico. Only four Preakness winners since 1997 failed to run faster than the previous start.

Preakness winners BRIS Speed ratings since 1997:

Year

 

Horse

 

Preakness Speed

 

Previous Start

2014

 

California Chrome

 

104

 

103

2013

 

Oxbow

 

111

 

98

2012

 

I’ll Have Another

 

109

 

108

2011

 

Shackleford

 

103

 

101

2010

 

Lookin at Lucky

 

104

 

97

2009

 

Rachel Alexandra

 

105

 

111

2008

 

Big Brown

 

101

 

111

2007

 

Curlin

 

113

 

99

2006

 

Bernardini

 

114

 

110

2005

 

Afleet Alex

 

112

 

99

2004

 

Smarty Jones

 

113

 

106

2003

 

Funny Cide

 

111

 

108

2002

 

War Emblem

 

110

 

113

2001

 

Point Given

 

107

 

97

2000

 

Red Bullet

 

106

 

105

1999

 

Charismatic

 

104

 

105

1998

 

Real Quiet

 

106

 

101

1997

 

Silver Charm

 

112

 

107

             

American Pharoah opened the year with a pair of respectable Speed ratings, generating a 99 and 102 for easy wins in the Rebel Stakes and Arkansas Derby, and received the first real test of his career in the Kentucky Derby. The son of Pioneerof the Nile proved up to the task, scoring a one-length decision, and has bounced back well according to reports.

He stalked a moderate pace and the Derby field didn’t come home quickly last time, but circumstances won’t be the same in Baltimore. American Pharoah is the crème of the three-year-old crop and supporters will be looking for a breakout performance at Pimlico.

Baffert’s three previous Derby winners all came back to take the Preakness, with Real Quiet and Silver Charm posting a significantly higher BRIS Speed rating, and American Pharoah appears capable of delivering the same improvement as well.

In terms of the competition, Derby runner-up Firing Line and third-placer Dortmund remain potentially formidable, generating commendable BRIS Speed numbers in prep races, and Materiality, who netted a 105 BRIS Speed rating for his Florida Derby tally, could show more following a troubled sixth on Derby Day if entered.

Those are the only Preakness rivals with a realistic chance to challenge American Pharoah.

Listed below are the last three BRIS Speed ratings for the 2015 Preakness contenders, with the most recent listed first (on the left) and the horses ranked alphabetically:

Horse

 

Last 3 BRIS Speed Ratings

American Pharoah

 

100-102-98

Bodhisattva

 

96-95-89

Danzig Moon

 

93-99-81

Divining Rod

 

96-87-95

Dortmund

 

96-106-102

Firing Line

 

98-101-100

Materiality

 

91-105-100

Tale of Verve

 

95-85-80

 

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