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Homeracing

2017 Belmont Stakes BRIS Speed Rating Report

Profile Picture: James Scully

June 2nd, 2017

After previewing BRIS Speed Ratings for the Kentucky Derby and Preakness, let’s take a look at the numbers for final leg of the American Triple Crown, the $1.5 million Belmont Stakes (G1).

It’s too early to make any definitive judgements about the 2017 3-year-old crop – late bloomer and future 3-year-old champion Arrogate didn’t break his maiden until June 5 last year – but the Speed Ratings posted by the prospective Belmont Stakes runners are a bit underwhelming to say the least.

Meantime has the top last-race BRIS Speed Rating, a 105 for a runner-up finish in the Peter Pan (G2), and Preakness runner-up Classic Empire is the only other horse with a triple-digit figure last time out (103).

BRIS Speed Ratings 2017 Belmont Stakes prospects (not applicable for Japanese shipper Epicharis):

HORSE

 

RACE

 

BRIS SPEED

CLASSIC EMPIRE

 

Preakness

 

103

 

 

Kentucky Derby

 

91

 

 

Arkansas Derby

 

96

 

 

 

 

 

GORMLEY

 

Kentucky Derby

 

85

 

 

Santa Anita Derby

 

99

 

 

San Felipe

 

91

 

 

 

 

 

IRISH WAR CRY

 

Kentucky Derby

 

82

 

 

Wood Memorial

 

102

 

 

Fountain of Youth

 

76

 

 

 

 

 

J BOYS ECHO

 

Kentucky Derby

 

75

 

 

Blue Grass

 

93

 

 

Gotham

 

104

 

 

 

 

 

LOOKIN AT LEE

 

Preakness

 

97

 

 

Kentucky Derby

 

97

 

 

Arkansas Derby

 

94

 

 

 

 

 

MEANTIME

 

Peter Pan

 

105

 

 

Maiden Race

 

92

 

 

Maiden Race

 

87

 

 

 

 

 

MULTIPLIER

 

Preakness

 

97

 

 

Illinois Derby

 

104

 

 

Maiden Race

 

93

 

 

 

 

 

PATCH

 

Kentucky Derby

 

78

 

 

Louisiana Derby

 

98

 

 

Maiden Race

 

101

 

 

 

 

 

SENIOR INVESTMENT

 

Preakness

 

98

 

 

Lexington

 

93

 

 

Louisiana Derby

 

93

 

 

 

 

 

TAPWRIT

 

Kentucky Derby

 

89

 

 

Blue Grass

 

87

 

 

Tampa Bay Derby

 

101

 

 

 

 

 

TRUE TIMBER

 

Sir Barton

 

91

 

 

Wood Memorial

 

90

 

 

Gotham

 

89

 

 

 

 

 

TWISTED TOM

 

Federico Tesio

 

93

 

 

Private Terms

 

91

 

 

Allowance Race

 

89

 

 

 

 

 

Analysis

Not a fast group from the last three starts.

Lookin at Lee, who could be the second or third choice on the morning line following a runner-up finish in the Kentucky Derby and a fourth in the Preakness, has never registered a triple-digit BRIS Speed Rating in 11 career attempts, posting a career-best 97 in the last two outings.

Seven of the 12 horses have registered a triple-digit BRIS Speed Rating once in the last three starts. None have met the threshold twice.

BRIS Speed Ratings last 15 Belmont Stakes winners:

HORSE

 

RACE

 

BRIS SPEED

CREATOR (2016)

 

Kentucky Derby

 

84

 

 

Arkansas Derby

 

100

 

 

Rebel

 

95

 

 

 

 

 

AMERICAN PHAROAH

 

Preakness

 

100

 

 

Kentucky Derby

 

100

 

 

Arkansas Derby

 

102

 

 

 

 

 

TONALIST

 

Peter Pan

 

107

 

 

Allowance Race

 

93

 

 

Maiden Race

 

93

 

 

 

 

 

PALACE MALICE

 

Kentucky Derby

 

93

 

 

Blue Grass

 

96

 

 

Louisiana Derby

 

97

 

 

 

 

 

UNION RAGS

 

Kentucky Derby

 

100

 

 

Florida Derby

 

102

 

 

Fountain of Youth

 

103

 

 

 

 

 

RULER ON ICE

 

Federico Tesio

 

93

 

 

Sunland Derby

 

93

 

 

Allowance Race

 

93

 

 

 

 

 

DROSSELMEYER

 

Dwyer

 

94

 

 

Louisiana Derby

 

96

 

 

Risen Star

 

95

 

 

 

 

 

SUMMER BIRD

 

Kentucky Derby

 

96

 

 

Arkansas Derby

 

98

 

 

Maiden Race

 

92

 

 

 

 

 

DA’ TARA

 

Barbaro

 

99

 

 

Derby Trial

 

96

 

 

Allowance Race

 

91

 

 

 

 

 

RAGS TO RICHES

 

Kentucky Oaks

 

109

 

 

Santa Anita Oaks

 

98

 

 

Las Virgenes

 

98

 

 

 

 

 

JAZIL

 

Kentucky Derby

 

99

 

 

Wood Memorial

 

101

 

 

Fountain of Youth

 

94

 

 

 

 

 

AFLEET ALEX

 

Preakness

 

112

 

 

Kentucky Derby

 

99

 

 

Arkansas Derby

 

107

 

 

 

 

 

BIRDSTONE

 

Kentucky Derby

 

90

 

 

Lane’s End

 

87

 

 

Allowance Race

 

97

 

 

 

 

 

EMPIRE MAKER

 

Kentucky Derby

 

106

 

 

Wood Memorial

 

111

 

 

Florida Derby

 

106

 

 

 

 

 

SARAVA

 

Sir Barton

 

104

 

 

Allowance Race

 

92

 

 

Allowance Race

 

99

 

 

 

 

 

Analysis

Unlike the Kentucky Derby and Preakness, BRIS Speed Ratings aren’t as important for the Belmont Stakes. Perhaps it’s the 1 ½-mile distance, but horses with some pitiful recent Speed numbers have captured the final leg of the Triple Crown including Birdstone (2004) and Ruler on Ice (2010), who were painfully slow in the last three starts.

Six of the last 15 Belmont winners failed to register a triple-digit BRIS Speed Rating in the previous three starts.

I won’t be too dissuaded by a Belmont horse with lower numbers if they have something else going for them.

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